Here you go TF, MYSTERY SOLVED.Basically the RacingPost made a balls up.
Thank you for your email.
We can confirm that officially there was one tip last Sunday which will be recorded as the Pricewise Extra selection and used in our results summary, this selection was Rock Anthem.
However, the first selection which was made by Tom Segal on Sunday morning was Jack The Bus, until a change in circumstances persuaded Tom to change his selection. The original choice of Jack The Bus had been sent to our Internet desk for publishing on the website but was later retracted as the new and final selection of Rock Anthem was submitted.
When the new selection (Rock Anthem) was published on the website a technical glitch occurred which contributed to both selections appearing for a short period of time. Some users who selected the link for Pricewise Extra were shown the correct selection and other users for a brief period of time were shown the incorrect horse, Jack The Bus. The handful of users who received the incorrect selection have inadvertently been given a winning selection but the correct horse for Sunday’s Pricewise Extra was Rock Anthem.
We hope this information is helpful.
Racing Post Customer Services
I know on the morning line he said he really likes Wayne Hutchinson and believes he is highly under-rated! Cheers, in the past he has said he is impressed by Fran Berry, Gary O Carroll and mentioned before he became high profile Paul Townend. He also liked to spot up an coming Jockeys BEFORE everyone else realised how good they were and he reckoned that was a useful edge to have. He also said today…….. Adrian Heskin great value for his 5lb claim
And similar for Batonnier in Supreme 1pt 12/1 Antepost.-£100?
Cheers and thanks for the comments. The problem with ante post non runners is that we measure the profit and loss at Betfair SP. It would, I think be very unfair to Tom Segal to penalise him for a non runner when we don’t allow him the ante post price if it wins. Its the only fair way of doing it that I can see?
Love your site. I can’t see his antepost best fro Cheltenham Friday – the posts are hiding it. Can you do anything to show them? Reply
Cheers. If YOU JUST HIGHLIGHT A BIT OF THAT PAGE YOU CAN SCROLL IT DOWN.
The Gold Cup Ante Post was Captain Cris N/R
hope you got on HT’s 11-2 winner today mr
About 2 years ago we did a short tracking on Hugh Taylor. We wanted to see how 100 points would go.
On 57 tips with 113pts invested.
He had 7 winners.
Went 31 bets without a winner.
Lost £3320 at BSP.
I like Hugh and he is running hot at the minute, but I don’t reckon he’s as good as Segal.
“Ladbrokes amusements arcades ltd” must be losing a fortune on there crazy early price restictions , would have been quids in if they had held there nerve. Reply
Yeah Pete, at one time they had the best odds compilers in the business. Now they are so bad they can’t even lay the prices they advertise.
Hall of Shame.
From 1st January to 11th February on PW, Tom had 5 winners from 19 tips and was +47pts. He also had a highly profitable Cheltenham +21pts. The current swing is 1 winner from 21 tips and -15pts.
Hard to believe he gets so much stick. Reply
Hi Verance, I think the problem is that inexperienced punters have unrealistic expectations. They see the headlines in the Racing Post about 20/1, 16/1 and even 50/1 winners and get the impression that is the norm.
Average BF starting price Irish selections after Comm 7.9-1
Strike rate: 1 winner in 14.5 (29 selections-2 winners)
Profit & Loss: Loss £1,248 to £100 (therefore requires 2 winners to make marginal profit at average SP)
Number of runners placed: 10 from 29 (Average BF place SP 1.9-1, losing YTD £136 before commission)
Stats on Pricewise Extra from 1st, January, 2012
Average BF starting price Extra selections after Comm 8.12-1
Strike rate: 0 winner in 26
Profit & Loss: Loss £2,600 to £100 (therefore requires 5 winners to make marginal profit at average SP)
Number of runners placed: 5 from 26 (Average BF place
SP 2-1, losing YTD £1,189 before commission if all backed)
This is why I advise everyone not to back Extra or Irish runners. The place market alone speaks for itself. Although, I will not share this information I have all the stats for horses in running to ensure a profit when laid off.
Pricewise in 2008 (olympic year) endured its worst ever performence under Tom Segals stewardship when he hit a period between March and August of a swing downwards of 75pts , could this current olympic year be heading for something similer , after all he is overdue one. Reply
I don’t remember that. I wasn’t keeping any records then and I didn’t see it mentioned in the Racing Post…….. lol
Reply to TF Is Segal then going to pop in a 5-1 Extra tip and then every will have to wait another 30+ weeks for a winner. The maths read like this:
£Stake X No. of Losing Bets + 1 Winner = LOSE YOUR SHIRT TO ME Reply
Not really sure what your point is Tom. PWE is running bad and over the last 2 years. All I can do is report the facts. I’m not saying to anyone you should back all these. I keep a record and give an unbiased opinion.
“Finding winners is a tricky game at the best of times but I know the exact reason for my struggles -
- it’s because I’m a contrarian.
However hard I try, I cannot make myself do the obvious.
Instead I have to be a smart arse and if I have a history with any horse then it is even worse.
If I have backed them before and they have been unlucky or ran well, then I can’t make myself back that horse again when the cat is out of the bag and they are a much shorter price.
In recent weeks Always Waining won his third Topham Trophy at a double-figure price, Merigo won his second Scottish National at rewarding odds, and the horse I backed at a big price to win the consolation Lincoln, Captain Bertie, landed the Spring Cup.
Without trying to denigrate anyone who backed those winners, it really didn’t take too much imagination or thought, yet you would have been handsomely rewarded on each occasion and I couldn’t bring myself to back any of them.
In any walk of life, whatever you do, you cannot blinker yourself from the blindingly obvious, but that is what I have managed to do in recent weeks and my bank balance has suffered as a result.
It’s the same in the Grand National.
Looking back over the years I can see that I have really struggled to back horses who had previously run well in the race, whereas I am happy to back those who have had a bad Aintree experience, and it is clear to me now that I have been trying to be far too clever in these end of season staying chases.
Hopefully that will change at Sandown come the Bet365 Gold Cup on Saturday, but I very much doubt I’ll allow myself to entertain something that doesn’t make me out to be a clever clogs.
Looking down the list of entries there doesn’t seem any horse with rock-solid credentials and we all know that funny things happen at the end of the season. However, not living far from Sandown, I can’t imagine the ground to be anything other than soft which would be unusual for this race and might well bring into the equation horses like ……..
About the poor april form,this is nothing new at all and should really be expected.
These records are very accurate and go back to 2004.
April 2004 -10pts to advised price
April 2005 +12pts to advised price(the guineas meeting was in april this year and he had two winners to bring the month to profit.
April 2006 +6pts to advised price(the only grand national winner hes had since montys pass in 2003,numbersixvalverde at 25/1 antepost,without this another poor april.
April 2007 +35pts to advised price(had a 50/1 winner at punchestown one of only two punchestown winners hes tipped in ten years of following him,the other was 5/2 in the same champion hurdle race,another poor month without the freak 50/1 winner.
April 2008 -14.6pts to advised price
April 2009 -15.5pts to advised price
April 2010 -11.5pts to advised price
April 2011 -14pts to advised price
April 2012 -21pts to advised price and counting.
Since 2004 theres been 1 grand national winner,0 Scottish national winners,0 Irish grand national winners(although hes gone very close a couple of times),3 aintree winners that i can remember,2 punchestown winners,and absolutely zero bet365 gold cup winners so i wouldn’t be holding my breath this afternoon,but you never can tell when hes gonna pull one out the bag.
What im trying to say is its a crap time of the year to bet for a number of reasons,change of codes,ground,tired horses etc….
Hopefully things will take an upward curve next month,they normally do?……..
On the subject of other tipster like hugh taylor,james boyle.
These guys like tom segal really know there stuff and are very good at searching the value out and making a profit but there are two points id like to make.
1. These guys can pick any race they want to tip in and in james boyles case i know he prefers to tip in flat races although he seems just as good at jump racing.
Tom segal has to tip in TV races at the big meetings that he is given.I’m sure he’d rather be tipping in a big field flat or jumps handicap rather than a poxy 5 runner grade 1 race at punchestown where the favorite is 1/2 but he cant say sorry everyone looking for a bet but no bet today so he’s gotta have a selection somehow.
2.Getting the price of the horses put up by james boyle and hugh taylor is probably ok if you havant had your internet/phone accounts shut or restricted but if you have and you have to use betfair or go to the betting shop your never gonna get near the year end total.(especially with hugh taylor)
You could be in lads when the bets are available and there’s 3 horses to back at say 14/1,12/1 and 10/1.
Lads have the 10/1 and the 14/1 but the 12/1 shot is 9/1 in there,so now you havant got time to reach say hills that have the 12/1 price before the price is cut so you take the 9/1 with lads.
The horse wins 2pts at 9/1 so now your at least 6 pts behind where you should be,times that by 20 in a year and that’s 120pts.
That’s if they let you have a good bet on the horse in the first place which im guessing they probably wouldn’t!
This is neither hugh taylor or james boyles fault at all as
like i say if you’ve not been restricted,james boyles service especially is top draw but if you have been restricted your gonna struggle,also expect to be restricted as soon as they latch on to the fact that your backing good value horses regular as they will “mark you card”
At least the advantage of pricewise is there’s a certain time the bookies are obliged to lay you the advised price shops/phone/net so you’ve at least got a chance of getting somewhere near the advised price(not always as they will make it as difficult as possible for anyone to get on!———
Good post as usual SK. Agree with what you say. Its probably a good time to point out that James and Hugh Taylor, both of whom I rate as excellent tipsters have had losing runs as bad as Tom Segals at the minute.
Well I’ve finally succumbed to the dreaded ‘Boylesport Restrictions’ that I’ve been reading about in places on the Internet, I thought it was all rubbish , I mean I’ve not even fleeced that bookmaker of a grand yet !! I’ve had the BOG aspect taken away plus a restriction of how much I can bet , I don’t know how much this is as I just said , sod you , and withdrew the lot, off to find another bookie now , or get a family member to open an account get a free bet also if I can manage to convince one of them
Boylesports are the worst. I don’t think they can afford to lay a bet and would be seriously concerned if I did get a big bet up with them.
Just read Gerry’s post after I’d posted that pretty much sums up where I’m at now also.
TF , that’s what I’d been reading prior to my misfortune or should that be there’s but they have covered there backs now !! I hardly bet with BoyleSport or have this past month only when they had best price at the time , probably only 7 or 8 bets this last month but all but one either placed or won, now no BOG I’m gone. Never have I had one problem with bet365 , Ladbrokes a few times restrictions on amount they will allow but that was a few weeks ago. Anyone recommend any other good bookies that have offers on the go signing up ? Never done Will Hill or Stan James, is there a good place to pick up codes when signing up to new bookies for matching your first bets
I’m getting on OK at the minute with Paddy Power and Betfred. I don’t know what the sign up deals are. Coral reduced me to small stakes after not very many bets.
What ever you do, all posters, don’t desert Tom now. In the month of May, I’ve made a decent profit in 4 out of the last 5 years following him, with a small loss in the losing year. However in the month of April, I’ve lost 3 times out of the last 5 years. In keeping with the comments of others though, all the profit has come from his Pricewise column in the Racing Post. I think that this is the vital point. Tom on Sunday and Pricewise Extra isn’t about value because there’s no 5, 10 or 15 minute window where you can obtain the price, it’s gone! Keep the Faith!
Bit of a worry lately that Tom’s horses not only lose but on a number of occasions come stone last. Cant help but think the only reason he selected Sadeeks Song was because the standout 18/1 with coral rather than selecting on merit.
Fair point Vinny. The whole point of pricewise is in selecting horses that are the wrong price. That is why he picked Sadeeks, 18/1 was too big. I will probably now have to write a whole post on this particular issue.
Arkle not as easy as you would think, especially when your commenting on Pricewise. You can easily end up with egg on your face, but these tips like yesterdays are poor in my opinion. I state this before they run. However, as I have also stated The Confessor I give a respectful chance.
James many of the tips these days are in my opinion selected by Segal with that very objective, to clear the slate. Almost as desperate as doubling-up. TF states that he selects horses that are wrongly priced. I do not entirely agree with this as I see no evidence horses that are CONSISTENTLY in the hunt a furlong from home. Long and short priced selections often run so unbelievably bad, it is hard to believe these are Pricewise horses. So many end up in the arse end of the field. Perhaps in hindsight last year he simply struck lucky with a 50-1 shot. Can’t see that happening this year. Sorry to be so negative, but the market I believe these days is against us and tips like Alla Sperenza don’t help Segal’s cause.
the real trouble we have this year as opposed to other years is getting on , i really struggle to get my £100 on anywhere near the advised price . Take tominator last year i got the 50/1 no problem with ladbrokes but this year id be lucky to get my £100 on at 30/1 . With ladbrokes laying no more than a £10 to me and corals the same i am left with what hills and fred shops will lay. This whole situation is really now making me consider my 12 year reletionship with pricewise.
just had a quick tot up and i am now 45pts adrift since gold cup day this includes all ante post bets , still 30 pts off his all time worst period in 2008 , like i said before though its worse now cos you cant get enough on at the odds , got to do some serious thinking about this problem , could be a case of bye bye pricewise the bookies have it mastered now.
Hi TF – great service, as ever. Have full confidence that Segal can turn around this losing run at Chester and York.
Just wondering why you aren’t quoting the Pricewise ante-post tips for the Guineas? Reply
I had them in lower down the page on the date they were given. One was a n/r which we don’t count. Can’t understand how I didn’t move the other one up.
Arkle, I hope Tom can dig us out of it, but if I am honest with myself I just can’t see it. As Rob and others have said he is picking some absolute shockers that have run very poor and clearly have little chance on the form book. Fingers crossed he can pop a few in, but unless they are drawn 1 to 3 at Chester I won’t be backing them. Chester is a grave yard for horses drawn high, although last year a few did come from mid-drawn boxes.
a system/method with a strike rate of 10 per cent according to a table ive printed a few years back indicates a 75% chance of 30 losers in a row per 100 bets, keep the faith im sure Tom Segal will come up with a Saturday winner soon!
I do appreciate its all about long term profit and will keep the faith in Tom (for now!) but I do struggle somewhat with the concept that a pro tipster cant pick a winner in almost 40 selections. If he was only looking for the big prices I might understand but there are a lot of single figures favourites amongst those selctions and frequently 2 selections in the same race.
guys keep an eye on ben hutton of RP
it seems this guy does very well often..
today he tackled two races –two winners
chester cup he had 2 selection o
ile de re 1pt@14/1( winner)
Pizza Hutton was awful last year and the year before, just shows how it changes down.
Vinny makes a very solid and valid point endorsed by James, Pete and Lay Tom. I’m with them 100%. Pete az you say looks like 2 more losing nags from the loopy legs stable. Trainer Segal needs to review his training regime. PS looks like someone has rattled Lay Toms boat, but he really does make a very good point.
I cant believe even after his terrible run that the bookies have the cheek to shorten his selections so much. He is living on past glories and the upside i find is that other horses in the races are bigger and better prices and usually run better than his selections.
Kings Warrior @ 5/2 and Questioning @ 3/1 yes plese and thank you
I went on to Tipsterform.com and today’ selections were on there. I thought oh well two short price selections today due to the going and non-runners. I had £15 each way double on ABSINTHE @ 5/2 in the 1.35 Chester and MACARET @ 4/1 in the 2.05 Chester both 1/4 1-2 with Ronnies both BOG.
Result ABSINTHE Won @ 100/30 and MACARET Won @ 13/2 returning £559.69 for £30 stake – Thank you Tom Segal.
yeh just shows that you need to hang in there when the going gets tough – i been there before too and stopped betting just before the winners came, but now I make sure my betting bank can cope with the losing runs and make sure I back ALL his selections. If you try and jump in and out you will end up sick when you miss a big priced winner (or winners) !!
last week i was in the same sitution…backing his loosers after loosers….
but cudnt back bradbury as there is no money left with me to back it..
i curse myself as it was my mistake as there is no money…
2 singles and a double for me so happy with Mr Segal today! Never back the pwe selections so not worried about missing that one. Not sure I would quite classify Tom as being “in form” as per the RP tweets Ive received, still a few people nursing the wounds from the losing streak. A couple more days winners though will go a long way in the healing process!
Just got back from Chester, fair play to Tom no fancy prices but much needed winners, sensible selections today reaped the rewards. Interesting that some followers are doing doubles today – be interesting to know if they normally double/treble up multiplying losses during a losing streak?
Winners are winners and his successful selections mean I am quids up. At last. As I have stated on many occasions I do not lay Pricewise Selections I back them. I only lay Segal on Sunday and Irish runners. I laid a bit against the PWE but I lay on reduction factor in running so I am quids in even when they win. My previous post stands. The jury is out and even though he has had 3 winners today (thank you) his strike rate needs to be improved. Value disappeared on advertised price so very difficult to make a profit at obtainable Betfair SP.
I had an ew double with his 2 paper winners with ladbrokes but upon checking my account I was not paid out with BOG guaranteed prices of 100/30 and 13/2 SP.
When I queried this with Ladbrokes thay tell me that since last week they no longer give BOG on bets struck before 10 am ! They of course gave me no notice of this change – looks like another case of bookies moving the goalposts again ! Reply
Disgraceful behaviour from Ladbrokes.
Strange but I never do double with the Pricewise selections
just thought It was worth an EW small double today don’t ask me why as singles only is my agenda on all bets apart from fun lucky 15′s with outsiders – Steve
In reply to ROB,that is how TOM SEGAL made his name,big fields,big handicaps.For instance,in the middle of his fantastic run in 05/06.he tipped a horse that fit all the criteria you state for today,and on top of that,it had never won a race I nearly ducked it,but kept the faith.
Step forward the one and only.SERGEANT CECIL
Reality check – if you’re betting £350 a point then a couple of winners at under 10/1 doesn’t put you in profit for the year, especially if you follow the sunday tips without a price as well…if you’ve upped your stakes this week then very prescient of you. To have any credibility you need to put up your stakes and price BEFORE the race.
i normally back 100 a point..but i had a free bet (200 bonus)with bet365. i so i took the offer i put 200 on both absinthe and other selection..yesterday i put 300 because i fancied it myseld and also i dint get the price i wanted so i put the stake up but other selections got 200 and 150 each,,
forget about creditablity and rubbish..
why do u think i am waiting until 2am in the night and buying the racing post online in the night time??
to place 10 or 20 pounds bets???
if you want you can check urself i will b posting tom segal tips as soon as a placed my bets in the night time..
Super site well done – congratulate you getting such massive bets with our rather skimpy bookmakers.
In my case
Got max 25.00 win coral
Got max 4.00 win betfred
Got max 1.00 win ladrokes
Ber365 max usually 25.00 then goes to a trader and pot luck
stan james nearly a waste of space and Boyles I gave up on a long time ago.
Keep up the good work
Cheers, why don’t you just do what I do and take Betfair SP?
Anyone thought about this , changing there betting accounts to Euro’s ? With the Euro being on a high against the £ I wonder if the bookies would even let you do this. Some bookies let you pick the currency when you initially sign up, but then the main cunundram in this idea of mine is what exchange rates the bookies would do in the first place, pound to euro it’s the best it’s been since 2008 trading at 1.25
================= Not sure I understand you. I’m sticking with pounds anyway. If Greece default the Euro is bound to drop in value.
TF changing to Euros then betting in that currency for say next few weeks, meaning, changed at £1 to €1.25 , Greece as you say goes pair shape in coming few weeks, Euro goes back down to £1 = €1.10 to €1.15 , we then change back to pounds meaning an added bonus. Do you get what I’m trying to say now ?
Here’s a question chaps, regarding something that bemuses me time and time again…why bother chasing round the bookies to try and get anywhere near the advised SP (when we all know you won’t get it), when you can just use an exchange like Betfair instead? No one can come close to BFSP, especially for long term profits?
I know you do get some good deals out there sometimes with bookies, but long term I seriously doubt you can beat Betfair. You also will never get the hassle of getting your account closed etc?
Just a question as I am honestly interested in the reasoning?
Tom the winner – great stuff mate – don’t let anyone on here
get you down – I have been a 2.00 am angel to Pricewise on the past and still couldn’t get the prices – I was a £120 a point man ( usually £60 EW ) with PWE as well.
Since June 2010 – I am up £ 9593.33 – I hit a high of £ 11,132.77 on 22nd January 2012 – I have since reduced my stake ( after Cheltenham ) to £30 a point or £15 EW – Steve.
If you get within a couple of points of the advised price you will make more money than you will with BSP.
After that it is swings and roundabouts.
The problem for a Betfair/ BSP punter is the reduction factors they do not favour the backer and sometimes by large amounts. Betfair are known for declaring non runners late and this skews in the layers / Betfairs favour. Do not forget they are a bookmaker as well.
great to hear that someone following segal big time..
made good money..
i am trying to cut down my stake to 100 pounds win(never done e/w)..
i am sure if we follow him properly without frustration we will be the winners…..not the layers or bookmakers..
GOOD STUFF BUDDY
but its hard work..
especially for me i work until 11pm everynight(7days a week)..then wait until 2am to get his tips and wakeup early to get the prices in the shops(hard to get the advertised prices during night)..hard work but beleive it will pay me
Think its best for everybodys own sanity to forget that ladcrooks exist. Just ignore them and do your bets elsewhere. Reply
I prefer to do the opposite and really annoy them. A good Pro that I know says this. I ask Ladbrokes for a £200 bet and get knocked back. I get 8 people to have £25 quid on for me…….. but obviously they also back it for themselves for 25′s and 50′s so Ladbrokes end up laying between 400 and 600 because they wont take my £200.
WOW ….James boyle today has hit a 14/1 winner @ York
on Secret Weapon. BSP of 17.5 /1
This guy is seriously good
last month he hit 60 points up
he had a bad start to this month but has now got on top again to 26 Points up….
I think he is simply the best tipster out there …
and you can get on at the prices.
Tom segal followers id take a look as this guy is the new price wise.
James is seriously good and proved it when he tipped for us.
I would recommend anyone to follow him. He is in my opinion at least as good as Pricewise. We posted his tips over several months and he did have seriously bad losing streaks and seriously good winning runs. But he knows his stuff. Onthenoseinfo is having a nightmare at the minute but they know their stuff as well and will come good. IF YOU ARE SERIOUS ABOUT BETTING….. follow both
James is certainly a very good tipster, but he is betting in bigger units compared to the 1 unit bets by pricewise.
It must be better to have smaller bets on a range of tipsters than just backing pricewise.
Aiden, James is 100% right to bet in 1pt 2pt and 3pt 4 pt and 5pt units and 100% right when he says no bet. Its Tom Segals choice to follow a staking plan and he doesn’t do it.
TOOOO fast today MR TF
beat me to post the selections
anyways good luck
lol, the time I post at depends on whether I have been out on the beer and get home when the Racing Post is out.
TF – Paul Kealy’s PWE selection yesterday was Mulaquen @ 12/1.
Today at York he goes for Swiss Franc (1.30) 1pt ew @ 16/1, Sajjhaar (2.00) 2pts win @ 6/1, Fury (3.00) 2pts ew @ 7/1, Cape Tribulation (4.45) 2 pts win. Reply
Cheers. If I had time I would track Paul Kealy the same way we do with Tom Segal. It would be interesting to put them head to head over 100 bets.
First I wanted to say thanks for the site. AS someone who works in IT I appreciate the effort involved.
I have been a keen fan of Tom for a number of years. I did raise a question in my one and only comment some weeks ago where I asked why Tom now offers tips in Ladbroke shops. You removed that comment. But I believe it is a legitimate question to ask if Tom is receiving payment from Ladbrokes then is he compromised? Why would Ladbrokes employ somebody to lose them money? Rather than removing my view, why not allow other people to comment. I agree that one of the main things I enjoy about Tom is his analysis of races and often you need to read the complete article in the RP to get a full view.
Sport and gambling is all about opinions. Censoring my comment serves no purpose and does your site a disservice. You should allow a discussion on this. I am more than happy to be wrong. I appreciate that Tom needs to earn a living like everyone else. But do you lose your mojo when you sup with the devil?
Kealy goes for Responsive in the same race as PW – and also advises a ‘proper bet’on Bertiwhittle 2.30 Newbury, fancies Excelebration to turnover Frankle, Hajras to beat Thomas Chippendale in the 3.05 Newbury, also Aljamaheer 3.20 Newmarket.
Seems like connections of horses tipped by Pricewise are getting miffed by the column now , thats 2 nrs in 2 days. Reply
I hadn’t noticed that Pete. It does happen. I had shares in a few horses and if the Trainer hadn’t got on at the right price he would pull them out.
365 is a luxury , they may give you a run , but the enevitable restriction will commence.I found it very hard to open another account with them. Reply
I’ve had 3 accounts closed with them. They will take you on till you back a couple of winners and then bang.
He tipped Unaccompanied (11/8) to turn over Fame and Glory (5/4). I could never see happening assuming F&G was fit. Result another loser for Tom Segal another winner for me. As you know I love laying his Sunday Irish tips albeit this one didn’t really follow the trend as many of his Segal on Sunday tips are in races where most of the runners are unknown certainly to me and his tip normally finishes in the last few home. If he calls tipping in races which can be likened to flicking a coin well I am pleased I am laying. Sympathise to all that may have been unwittingly been sucked in to a false sence of security at the price and have lost money they can ill afford. Reply
That was a definite lay. With Tom tipping it the price was completely wrong. It should have been 2/1 – 5/2 in my opinion.
Yes a tough week for price wise followers with no winners, but also other tipsters have struggled too. I may be wrong but I don’t think Hugh Taylors had any winners either , and although James Boyle gave out a great 16/1 winner on Wednesday he has had a lot of losers before and since Wednesday. Think it has just been tough to find winners this week !
Yes a tough week I don’t think now is the time to be too critical of Tom, his tips ran well today, Joseph showed his quality again on FAG, much better ride than when he was turned over in the race. I thought the Ripon tip had no chance but it ran well. After a lot of Tom The Winner it’s Lay Tom’s turn this week!!!
Note for Tom Segal. Don’t bother mentioning Boylesports as the best price for your selections. They are a total waste of time and you can never get on. This morning you said Ancient Cross was available with Boyle for 25/1. They never offered it at 8.30 online. 20/1 was their offer. The 8/1 on Frog Hollow was available with Boyle at 8.30 but they wouldn’t take my measly £9 bet to win. I opened an account with them on May 3rd 2012 and have had 4 losing Pricewise bets with them since. Now it seems they will not take anymore Pricewise bets from me. As you would expect I have closed my account. Tom PLEASE don’t mention Boylesports as the best price for your selections. They are useless.
I agree with Doug…it’s nothing short of an absolute disgrace that Boyles can actually decline a wager as low as £9….they are either bookmakers or not and should be outlawed and exposed to all prospective punters.let Tom Segal make the first move by excluding them altogether.
Perhaps The Racing Post could investigate what the various bookmakers are prepared to accept on a typical Pricewise wager.
I dont believe Boyles actually lay the PW prices they quote anymore, I had 22 pence left in the account and tried that for a laugh, still got refered to the ‘automatic risk team’! Also received an email from them yesterday saying all my ‘privilages’ were revoked e.g. no best price guarantee, no special offers blar blar. Pathetic bookie!
Boylesports are a complete and utter joke, I’ve had my account made unuseable, I was about £450 in profit over 14 months.
My old man opened an account for me to use and that has gone the same way since February with just over £900 staked and a net profit of just over £76 in that time – totally unuseable with every bet getting rejected now.
Let’s just say I’m still able to bet with them using mates accounts and if I can continue to use them to do my normal bets and trades it gives me great satisfaction to take any amount of money off them short-term, long-term or whatever….regardless of the amounts.
It’s personal now and I’ll use them as and when until each account gets closed and move to the next one.
Let the games commence….
Apologies Peter..was told he had only one selection today.
Apart from the two Segal tips, I have only one other bet today .. A small stake on Powerful Wind in the 4.50 at Chester. Took 10.5 on Betfair. He’s a front runner and might make them all go. Fingers crossed!!
I can remember a few years ago (say 4) where everything Pricewise on Saturday tipped weighed in with a winner or a placed selection at a good price. I don’t have the stats that go back that far so perhaps someone can throw some light on this. I am ONLY referring to Pricewise on SATURDAY. I believe his strike rate was something like 1 in 5 (or that is how I remember it). Forget price and getting on, I am more interested in understanding why is strike rate is these days so poor.
Tom is having an absolute torrid time of late…I just have a gut feeling ,though, that he will have a profitable Ascot and I am counting on getting back on an even keel during that week.
How did he fare out in previous years at Ascot…I’ven one been following him sinceh the start of this year.
Hope you are right cisco but the odds are not in our favour , Royal ascot has been poor over the years bar one i think it was 2003 where he had a stormer Attache 2pts 33/1 winner In times eye 1 pt 16/1 winner and another at around 9/2 cant remember the name though all on the friday of royal Ascot.
I do not have the stats but get the sense Royal Ascot has not been his best meeting.
That is not to say he will not get any winners but bear in mind he will tip a lot of horses each day and there are 5 days and we all know what the bookies like in terms of cutting the price and limiting stakes.
I certainly have recollection of two Ascots with no winners at all – lots of close things but no wins. A really tough week. It is not like say Cheltenham where he tends to always pull something out of the bag.
He has admitted more than once he finds Ascot a tough course to assess – particularly since they made some changes to the course I think.
I would, therefore, urge caution but the problem is many of us have been on his bad run and it would be sod’s law if he has his best Ascot yet and you miss out!
Another Irish and a PWE loser. I keep on playing the same record because his record in Ireland can be liken to the performance they displayed against Spain last night. If you want to carry on losing your money, just carry on backing those Irish races. I just love them. If I had Tom Segal’s home address I would send him a Christmas Card with a £50 note inside with a message saying “don’t put it on any Irish race or your Segal on Sunday tips and if you feel tempted return it as I can’t stand seeing the queens face being defaced!”
Good handicap today thinking Qahriman was a bit unlucky at Chester but been following Lordofthehouse, whilst Local Hero completes a strong head of the market against exposed bunch. Which means an outsider will win!
first post be gentle with me tom segal has had poor years before last year i had 3 big price winners s we shld keep the faith remember he does not like goodwood aug meeting goodluck in the hcps at ascot
Derek many posts on here are questioning Segal’s current form and the diabolical performance of many of his tips. Before you jump to his defence read the posts and study his form not the one you read in the Racing Post and on tv
Perhaps a topical winner in the 14:05 York ladies amateur race (did I here someone cough and whistle) Troopingthecolour 9/1. Has Crakentorp and Eagle Rock to contend with but represents good value in my opinion if ridden to its merits. Distance and ground in favour and has been knocking on the door.
Rather strange selection again from Tom Segal with Hillview Boy all his form appears to be around 1.5 miles to 1.75 miles. This is a considerable drop back to 1 mile.How can it possibly win I ask. A definate lay. Won’t be backing and I don’t believe it will be placed and will lay this one in all markets to a few grand.
Intransigent 3.10 York, hasn’t really got ny reliable form to judge it on. A win on the AW and May spin at Chester on heavy. Will be backing this one, but am not holding my breath nor is Tom Segal I suspect.
As Rob was eluding to expect possible poor performances with no run for your money. What do you think guys?
Thanks for tips Tom the Winner and thanks Lay Tom for your comments on Hillview. Will downsize my bet or ignore all together today. Will wait to morning line to decide.Makes you wonder how he justified Hillview in his write up. Will get a Racing Post later on.
Hillview Boy ran as Lay Tom and others who follow the form predicted – outpaced over a trip too short. Irrelevant that it was placed. However, whilst I have backed Priceless Jewel I do think Intransigent is a sprinter to follow and have had a saver. Very impressive against decent yardsticks in maiden and had nio chance at Chester the way the race panned out. I think the Easterby is a just in case guess but it’s worked for Tom before.
yes shocking run from Pricewise but other tipsters are also struggling including James Boyle who is also finding winners difficult to come by. Hugh Taylor has had a few nice winners but lots of losers as well !
I have a gut feelin’ that Segal will have a profitable Ascot…I know it goes against all reasoning with his present dismal form, but I just believe he will make up for a lot of lost ground next week with a couple of big priced winners.. they’re definitely due! Don’t lose the faith !
I’ve backed Hughsie at 7/2 to be top jock at Ascot …looks to have a number of really good mounts.
Fame and Glory , Sir Prancealot and Emulous are my 3 best bets for the week.
On this particular occasion I made only a marginal profit as Hillview finished 3rd, however the point I was making was proven. Segal tipped a horse with little or no chance as from next Saturday I will provide the Lay Tom Bismarck which may also include Pricewise selections. I know many of you are saying who the f… is this guy but watch and see is all I can say. I certainly won’t run up a losing run like the results that we have been seeing. Will be interesting to see how many people forgive me when he clicks in a winner and I have opposed him.
i do not like being wise after the event at royal ascot if tom has a sel in ahcp at an available 25-1 i will back it so it will have to be 40-1 for that to happen This morning hills refused £33win on 11-2 shot offered £18 at 11-2 the rest at sp declined and got on at lads
Tomthewinner. Lay Tom got it spot on. Hview boy may have got 3rd but the first 2 pulled well clear from HVIEW. Your post appeared to have an implied dig. Not wishing to defend any one on here but I personally found LayToms post very useful and after reading it I decided not to back Hillview. I also had a few quid on his other selections and won a few hundred in Crakentorp which was his danger to Trooping the Colour. Cheers. I will follow your advice over a period LayTom but will give you a kicking if you mess up. Mind you Tom Segal messes up regularly so if you do you’ll be in good company.
It’s widely known that ladbrokes have very strong connections with the o’brian camp so why was he tipping kissed today when it was as clear as day ladbrokes were very keen to take bets on the horse.
They weren’t just biggest price they were biggest by nearly a point and a half from most firms.
Not only that there was no (only £25 allowed this morning) they seemed to be taking as much as you wanted to back it with,(within reason).
Then I hear that the horse has now been retired to stud with a “fracture”…….
Very worrying or very poor unimaganitive selection?
Very worrying this link with Ladbrokes – as I agree with worried punter above – Ladbrokes/ O’Brien are cap in hand
and we all know that – didn’t touch them today – will be interesting his RA selections – Might need to tip Frankel to get the monkey off his back LOL
It depends on if you really think you’re going to make money following Pricewise as it is in 2012 if you leave it alone or not. If you do, then you just have to suck it up and keep finding the money. His followers cannot risk missing that big priced winner that claws back the thousands they’ve lost this year. Tom Segal has a long term profitable record but the goalposts have moved. The relentless Racing Post hype machine has meant he has to tip more often and in Ireland and France and that appears to have found him out, for now at least. And as we have all commented before, what can followers get on at the prices advised? Ascot could be make or break time for Tom The Winner and co. There will be 25 tips at least which is a lot to lay out. I think he will tip Fencing on day one and that could be the horse to get him back on track but I wouldn’t ignore The Nile if he takes his chance either.
james well said mate..
If i stop backing him now..then comes a big priced winner..
then i will have to cry for a week..
doent matter whatever happens i will keep backing his selections..
i still have faith in him…
From a betting perspective only interested in 5.00 on tuesday come on tom give your followers something i am loathe to follow him in the group 1 non hcps as i said the other day lets hope for a long price wed hunt cup and sandringham more like it for me
Derek you have a valid point. In the conditions I would review his selections and only if you can’t make a strong case for any other horse, them perhaps back his tip especially if IN YOUR OPINION his tip represents good value. Only then would back them. I will restrict my bets on his selections as I think the performance of many of his selections are not just poor they are unbelievably poor in the run they give you. He keeps on opposing quality horses without any justification for doing so. I’m just waiting to see him oppose Frankel and Black Caviar. If he does I won’t be backing them as he will be gambling on a poor run from these two superstars. I won’t let him throw my money down the toilet.
Very major concerns with Western Pearl (may not make distance) in 17:00. Am leaving that one alone. I am however sweet on Elaydi but @ 7-1 this will only serve to get days stake back if only winner on the day. I also think Parliament Square is a poor choice on the form book and others have better credentials (the favourite Lyric Ace 4-1 looks to be holding a winning hand) Saying that it is very dangerous and a bold move to ignore anything the O’Brien’s run, but at 10-1 this is in my opinion poor value. True price should be 20-1. Good luck to those who back Parliament but expect to lose your money. It ran a terrible race last time.
im pretty convinced that the french 2 Hermival & Dragon Pulse as the value in the St James’s Palace both over 12/1 on betfair. The ground and stiff mile should really suit both, and not really suit power..
Annoyed he’s tipped The Nile this one was my sneaky value bet of the meeting and he’s many times said he likes Fencing but he’s put The Nile in as well because Buick has deserted Fencing. In a dilemma now can I back it at 8 points shorter than I’d planned.
Good idea Dave F! I’m scared today I fancy a lot of the same ones at Tom today praying his form changes – must have a chance these ones they were mainly well fancied and solid in the market before Tom put them up.
Tomthewinner FYI these were the prices shown at 6am on the Racing Post betting website, I didn’t check odds checker or Betfair at that time and was merely giving an indication as to the approximate odds. No mention of best odds. People wagering do shop round as you know. I didn’t mention any firm. You of all people should appreciate that the market fluctuates and as such the odds I indicated were the odds available at the time I made the post. I trust I have answered your query satisfactorily.
For once i was proved right todays card looked horrible from a betting point of view and other tipsters picked nothing hugh t james boyle but i did not back one of toms sel still waiting for one of the big price handicaps but part of me has no confidence in what he picks. hunt cup and britannia coming up
Pistol Pete, why don’t you lay instead of backing? You need to be very disciplined and have b’llks the size of coconuts, but you write your own destiny. You need about £20k to do it seriously and need to get use to making small margins on a regular basis instead of big windfall wins. Some of Segal’s tips are flawed big style on the form book. It is no longer about having patients it is about scrutinising his tips instead of backing them blindly. I know you know what you are doing as you keeping stats. I named 2 of his selections today which appeared to have no chance on form. You need to do the same. You could only back in handicaps on a Saturday almost a certainty to make money.
Pete I think you need advice not from me and Lay Tom! But I have to agree again with LT, and I’ve said it before myself, in the end the answers are USUALLY there in the form book or by looking at trends and the way trainers operate. Forget 2yo races for example until later on. The selection of the obrien horse in the last today was a complete and utter guess. I mean I watched its debut and it was never going to find enough to win today although it did come on. And I think a new element now is to realise when Tom Segal is tipping for tippings sake and I think that happens on Sunday.
Just watching the SJP again, I’m not counting either of Tom’s tips as bad tips The Nile nearly brought down Fencing who was cruising and to my eyes about to fly down the outside. Good luck Pete I backed Belgian Bill in Meydan ran well to be 2nd.
Hi Guys, first post on here but been reading for quite a while happily and enjoy.When these tipsters (I pay James Boyle First three months recently) they are finding value that is not there sometimes and we all follow blindly, I’m no pro, not even near but I put his tips in ATR tracker and they win within 2/3 further races, frustrating if you miss them!
Klynch, Oriental Scot, Crackentorp, example of horses he tipped (Boyle) and then lost, next race he tipped others in same race and these won! Now that hurts! I have noticed that all tipsters are struggling, Friends pay Rix, I pay Boyle, all on bad losing runs! I have spent £80 on Wizz Kid 3pts, Hermival 2pt, New Pearl 1pt, Cosimo De Medici 2pt, Hermival made a good show out of all four, you back ew and stake is doubled! Reply
Good point Phil.
I’ve noticed that happening quite a lot. It also happens with horses that are gambled on and fail. They come out a few weeks later and run the way they were supposed to when the money was down. As the man said They are not machines.
Thanks for the early heads up,TOM THE WINNER.had already backed mr.gosden,because of his record in ascot handicaps,Gonna break my own rules and double up because of DEREKS observation yesterday,RE toms liking for gosden,I DONT go that deep into SEGAL,or any other tipster eitherT.B.H., just place bets as i feel nowaday’s,not strictly working to a specific bank or stake figure,if he sends owt,that aint showed up in my form,just reduce my stake,and before anyone has a go,did the same back in the year tom was king,and he bought were i live,not a palace,but not a tent either.L.O.L. yup voddy talking,but not exaggerating either.
And PHIL,MR.RIX back then,was used by 2 of the people u mixed with in a betting shop,they got different tips everyday.and i read BOYLES thread each day,and yes he on losing run,but seems to still be in front each month,according to what he posts.?.dont want anything but a confirmation,if you follow at his stake advice,do your figures add up to what he posts.?.i think they will,comes across as a genuine guy,if on a losing run,my defences come up,go EW at half stakes,when start winning,back to the hits.mr boyle dont go EW he says,i say more fool him.
ok heads aching,just trying to give a sensible lead.
Jmaes Boyle has made profit every month so far this year with the exception of june, but the month is not over and 2 or 3 good winners will turn it around, the figures he posts as profits are genuine results and most of the time you can get the recommended prices. This month has been bad all around, I am showing significant losses but I am sure I am not the only one. I am just hoping for 2 or 3 good priced winners over the next few days, I be happy to claw it back to a small loss rather than significant losses I have for this month.
re james his figures are correct and he responds to emails the next day and admits to losing runs has had so many long price seconds so he is doing the right thing no favourites i am sure he will make a profit this flat. tom picked some decent selections and hugh taylot has picked toms selection in 5.00 not backing tom today was hoping for a big price in hunt cup .
Reading all of these threads with interest and seeing that apparently Tom is approaching his worst ever run, the advice now is to hang on in there. It’s almost a year ago that he tipped Tominator to win the Northumberland Plate @ 50/1. He’s going to strike very soon, make no mistake about it, and don’t forget, Tom isn’t tipping horses that he thinks are most likely to win but rather that are longer PRICES than they should be, that’s the whole concept of the Pricewise column and the reason that he’s been so successful. So he’s having a losing run, so what; it’s been one of the wettest periods weatherwise on record and so unpredictable when it comes to tipping. Have a decent bank behind you,(for me that’s at least 100 times my normal stake),and losing runs don’t mean a thing. Lay your stall out and stick to your guns. Sermon over! Reply
That’s exactly right Stanley. Any horse can win and its chance is reflected in the price. If that price is too big, then Tom is going to tip it. If you continue to back horses that are the wrong price (too big) you will make a profit in the long term.
Firstly thankyou to James for putting a reply to me it wasnt expected, he is quite right and i wasnt questioning him or his judgement in any way, hope i didnt appear to be moaning about him and his selections as i have faith and will continue backing. I see why the selections are made and was just saying that he chose them examples well ahead of when they win!
What reply Phil? I haven’t seen one published above? Also, what’s wrong with having a moan about a service you are PAYING for when it’s not delivering?
Also, James Boyle can and does go on losing runs. I’ve posted this before and it continually gets deleted but, under the guise of Bet Buddy, you would have made a loss following him for the whole of 2011 to tips he proofed on Racing Index –
I don’t know anonymous, who did he proof those results/selections to? Not Racing Index that’s for sure – but he did proof the selections of Bet Buddy on there! Only saying what is there in black and white on their web site, am not knocking him as a tipster he seems to know his onions. It just illustrates how all tipsters can go on long losing runs which you have to be prepared for
today we will equal the all time worst losing period for Pricewise and to those who say his luck is to change soon dont hold your breath another 3 months like the past 3 is entirely possible and that will be far to much for most to take.
New followers have lost their bank big time this year – let’s be honest Tominator rescued 2011. Hopefully like Stanley says there’s another one around the corner. This Duntle may well win but it is a joke at 6.2 on betfair it’s form chance is double that I mean Devotion beat it last time out! Ok so it will go and win but where is the value?
Made a few quid on the day…at last!! Disgusted with Ladcrooks though…had 20ew on Hoyam at 16′s and expected a return of 100 at 1/4 the odds. Discovered they were the only bookmaker offering just 1/5 odds…measly b……ds!
Ascot is more luck than judgement. If Segal knocked in two 33-1 shots what does that prove. He needs to be more consistent in his selections and the run they give his followers. I am leaving him alone this week unless they have outstanding claims.. If he can’t get a winner when he only has one or two races to concentrate on, what chance has he of making a profit this week. Money down the drain I say. Come Saturday I will still have a few quid many of you will be either praying for pay day or be skint, only to see him tip a 10-1 winner that ends up winning at an SP of less than 4-1. He is becoming a bigger liability than Greece!
Simon H, have you seen the torrential thunderstorms forecast for Ascot Thursday Friday, for a horse that has only run on good in Australia Black Caviar might be worth opposing tonight for you free money back bet!
Phil, that is on Pricewise if you backed all tips including Pricewise Extra and the Segal on Sunday tips your losses would be a lot more. This website also draws a line on the figures from 1st January and depending on what combination of tips you back and WHEN you started your losses would mean that even a 66-1 winner wouldn’t clear the losses. Pistol Pete provides regular updates of the true position. The a average Segal tip on PRICEWISE is set off at less than 10-1. That is a lot of winners he needs to find. With the bookies being aware of the publicity Pricewise and Tom Segal gets he is unlikely to get that big outsider so many of you think he can get as they push down the price which reduces the Betfair sp also. The only time he is likely to get another 50-1 shot is In a hugely popular race with over 20 runners where he has tipped more than one selection and his outsider wins that was unfancied or betting abroad. Think about it Reply
The previous 16 months are here. http://tipsterform.com/tom-segals-tips/ I just do it year by year because it seems the best way.
Peter june 20th asked for irish tipster gary o brien atr well in profit this season .A note about tipsters james boyle is totally genuine with his claims i have followed his selections for about a year and he has had long losing runs but the key is the figure at the end of flat and remember you get on at the prices .hugh t and gary o brien are honest but u cant get on at prices .All of them will be in long term profit .Finally yes u have to pay for james selections so its swings and roundabouts!good luck everyone today keep those stakes medium rain about!
Lay Tom – Black Caviar isn’t value at < 1/3 (I notice you don't put a price in your post).
Society Rock is value at 12/1 and Moonlight Cloud was a few days ago at 15/2. Each way bets on those two will return more for just a place than a win on the favourite, with the added bonus of a possible win.
Pistol Pete, I feel your pain, this month has been a complete disaster for myself, nearly lost all profit I made during the year. Not getting a winner from anywhere. Hoping Rewarded does some thing in the 5.00 at ascot and have another in the last. Need one to come good. I may need a bail out if things keep going like this. !!!
I’m not blaming Segal for struggling this week the racing posts so called experts who get paid to do nothing but find winners have all been hammered – look at Paul Kealy and that hopeless Italian fellow today – so has Hugh Taylor any ‘tipster’ you care to name. And I’m doing no better using my own judgement. Lay Everything is probably the best bet!!!
Reply Valance:- I think you have not read most post properly regarding Black Cavier. It was a reply to an earlier post made by Phil regarding Black Cavier who replied to a post made by Cisco. Cisco was saying that he had backed Frankel – Black Cavier double at EVENS with Ladbrokes. Phil appeared to think there were other contenders in the race that could beat him. This was not about prices and e/way betting and value, but since you mention it now, I would rather be on the double than an e/w Society Rock at 15/2. Reason you will lose the win portion of your bet and make pennies if the horse is placed. That is betting madness. I am 100% with Cisco. If you would have read my comments over the last few days and before you will see that I recommend which horses of Segal’s you shouldn’t be backing. Today I said I didn’t fancy any and people should go careful. I haven’t been wrong yet when I have advised not to back horses of Segal’s. Which there have been over 20 some at odds of less than 3-1 on more than one occasion.
For the record Pricewise now 73pts down since gold cup day and with his prices still being agressivly cut and stakes heavily restricted its looking impossible for any sort of decent recovery.
Oh i would like Pricewise out of my life now , after 10 years of being a follower its hard to say farewell.
At least with James Boyle you can get on to decent amounts.
I make it 74.09pts starting with the tip after Synchronised Pete. So you’re more or less spot on. That is a hell of a down-swing. Even if you start with Synchronised its still awful.
Lay Tom – I also took the €25 max on that Frankel and Black Caviar double at evens.
I think I read your post fine – you said “Frankel & Black Cavier is buying money. If you oppose her you will lose your money. Fact”. That’s wrong. I’ve opposed her with two, Society Rock at 12/1 and Moonlight Cloud at 15/2, both big value each way bets. The market says she has a 75% chance, I think closer to 60% but you think 100%?
Hillview Boy finished 3rd recently, before the race you said you were laying him in all markets to a few grand so I wouldn’t say you haven’t been wrong yet. I’m confident PW will be in profit over the year and confident you won’t (by all means find a way to prove me wrong). Reply
What leads you to believe that the market is wrong? Its a 75% chance at the minute, but the true price will be the Betfair SP in my opinion.
Its a shocking run since mid March Pistol Pete, I cant see it been got back, James Boyle is a different story, 1. You can get on his advised prices 2. You can decent stakes on them. The key point over the last 3 days is that between segal, Taylor and James Boyles they have picked 1 winner. I am confident James Boyle will redeem his run either this month or next however at this stage I am struggling to see how Segal can get this back. When he does get a winner it will be lucky if you get a price of 10-1 on it and stakes will be limited as well. He woudl need a run of every 2nd-3rd horse he picks to be winning at decent odds( Not like yesterdays)
Hey TF, I think the Betfair price is highly efficient, probably >95% but does get it wrong sometimes. This market is still pretty low liquidity with 100k traded and she could well drift on the day, I think all the bookies will be out to get her enhancing the price during the morning anyway.
She’s surely one of the best around but is completely hyped up. Thousands of people will be backing her who’ve never seen her race, how many people know she only won her last race by a length (a comfortable length!)? She’s never raced in this weather, in soft ground and has a long journey to recover from. Plus there’s always the chance of her being withdrawn if she’s any little injury or if it’s too soft.
My figures are ALL bets recorded to the best price i could achieve to £100pp i ususally get on at next price down to the advice although even that is becoming hard. Reply
Interesting that there is virtually no difference between your figure and mine at BSP.
Another loser for Tom Segal tonight on PWE leo 905 oilily 1pt lost.
Seriously i think Tom is on the way out what with this horrrendous downswing and the poor 18mto 20 months on PWE , i think he is becoming one to avoid factor that in with his now drastic price cuts its now time to forget him and move on.
I know for a fact the Post are lauching a book later this year titled “25 years of Pricewise” i am not 100 % sure but i think this may signal toms departure.
Do you back his bets TF or is this just for interests purpose
I back them all Pete. I started the site to give me the discipline to keep records. I’ve been a bit lucky the last month or so in that I have missed the price on a lot of them and they lost. I don’t back them if they go to silly prices.
I think the comment about james boyle is fair u can get a decent price and to a good stake i am sure he will turn it round .Mind you tom has put in print that ascot is no good for punting also york with the awful ground and he hates goodwood as well .even cheltenham is a minefield as far as us punters are concerned good luck tomorrow everybody
I was always told too turn the volume down on commentators before betting on a sporting fixture as they taint your opinion, all I have heard about Black Caviar is how unbeatable he is, never raced on wet English soil, fields of 12 and under and what quality horses defeated? I hope he wins for the sport as it needs superstars, but everything and everyone is beatable!! Looking at his previous prices of 1/33 he must be good, anyone heard of a lower priced horse?
Black Caviar is a she not a he and is quite simply a freak as much as Frankel is. Wait till you see her in the flesh or HD – she’s built like a bull but floats across the ground. I can’t see the going being anything much worse than good to soft by Saturday afternoon – a surface she’s won on at least ten times, the latest at odds of 1/33 and 1/20. At 2/7, or whatever the eventual SP is, the Aussie’s think it’s like printing money. I know there is no such thing as a racing certainty but this must surely be as close as it ever gets. Even at 90-95% I believe there is value there. Tom will probably oppose with a couple 50/1 shots but it’s all-in for me. She wins with a devastating burst just off the pace with a 1-2 length victory and a 10sec fractional thrown in for good measure. Way better rate than any savings account and worth the risk IMO. Reply
Freak indeed Bally. I read somewhere that she is bigger than DENMAN and weighs in at 575 kilo.
BALLY I have been following the Black Cavier debate and although I won’t be backing her (not rich enough) I won’t be opposing her with any of the other runners as I don’t want to be any poorer. Your comments have it nailed- good post. I’ll wait till after the race when she has won and win she will. I suspect everyone opposing her will go silent or make a joke at the price not wishing to truly accept the true extent of their foolishness. Can’t people watch a race for what it is without having a bet? Pistol Pete and Tom the Winner I’m with you, we can’t just keep on backing ALL his tips blindly.Kevvy you make a very valid point about staking and one I agree with. In fairness LTom talks a lot of sense and he is one of the posts I follow regularly as although he likes dropping contradictory bomb shells he is more often right in his opinion. James and TF as always put a calmer spin in things. Great lads. Just need a winner. Tom Segal must realise his days are numbered unless he resolves himself by picking some decent priced winners on a more regular basis. LT’s advice has saved me shed loads. I don’t know if I’ll feel like this if Pricewise gets a winner and LT has opposed it. On the same point TF our host has been saying the same sort of thing by warning everyone for weeks to look at the previous RAscot stats. It simple lads really. When you have large fields with quality horses that you can make a case for half the field not to mention the unknown competitive form of the Irish runners you will always get strange results. In my opinion crap ground helps if anything. The results are the same as Cheltenham.
Varance – please cut out the brown smelly stuff out and stiok to the facts, which are. I advised against Hillview Boy which was tipped by Tom Segal Pricewise TO WIN and said this was a DEFINATE LAY. Meaning that Pricewise was tipping a horse to win and I believed it would lose. I said I was laying him in all markets. That was subsidiary. The fact is he lost the race, which is what I predicted. Tom Segal didn’t tip HView E/W (which he seldom does) so if you followed my advice you would have saved yourself your stake. You seem rather confident that Pricewise will recover the losses on the year and that I will lose. How do you work that one out. Facts please when you reply. Stats are only as good as the last bet, a losing one at that. If you are backing his horses (all of them including PWE and his Sunday tips) you must have more money than sense. Reading your confidence in him, I doubt it though as you would already have been severely wounded in action due to his unbelievable losing runs. For the record I believe if you ONLY BACKED HIS SATURDAY TIPS YOU WILL PROBABLY MAKE A PROFIT. I BACK THESE MYSELF IF THEY AGREE WITH MY LINE OF REASONING.
Atlantic Sport 40/1 EW
Imperial Guest 33/1 EW both 5 places with paddy power ************************************8
Hi Aidan, I am going to have to start following your tips to get out of trouble. I know you don’t get a lot of winners but at least the prices are usually huge http://longshotvalue.com/
LT, I only back PW paper tips and only when I can get close to advised price, only when they are shorter on Betfair, I wouldn’t take less than 10s for a 12/1 tip. I back 99% of the tips each way, again when the place part is shorter on Betfair which happens almost all the time. Backing each way helps smooth out the variance and lets me get more money on.
Sure PW is on a bad run but the criticism is ridiculous – since April the bad run means the PW column is down 39pts, but for the first 3 months it was up 41pts. So year to date is +2pts. Backing all tips each way would add an extra 24pts profit.
@PAUL, Global Village was 12/1 yesterday evening with Ladbrokes and again at 8.15 this morning. Max bet 30ew.
Why is the criticism ridiculous? If people are losing money on PW they are entitled to comment on the awfulness of the selections. He has given 6 selections today – you need a 6/1 winner just to break even. Far better to trust your own judgement imo, than to jump lemming-like at PW selections. He’s had it. Time for a new broom at RP.
VERANCE,the problem with your quoted +2 pts.overall this year,is that you are quoting tom’s prices,which very few can get,even at reduced stakes.This site quotes B.S.P. and looks more realistic,even though i think B.S.P. is not a genuine figure for any followers,who chase the best available after they see his picks,agree with you,if i cannot get within 2 pts.i ditch that bet, swallow my loss with just a fun bet,to say i never missed it if they win.Usually this point is where some jump in saying,’work to a strict bank’,that would work,IF you could get the intended stakes on,which rarely happens,hence the number of disillusioned followers,and sorry,i ain’t got the answer to the problem either
It’s ridiculous because his selections haven’t been awful, he’s in profit. The fact people take reduced odds isn’t his fault, he’d never recommend that. People saying he’s past it or has been compromised is ridiculous because his selections are in profit. Nothing wrong with giving 6 selections today, if you have 6 selections over any period of time you’ll need a 5/1 winner to break even. Doesn’t matter if it’s over a day or a month.
Dave, it’s certainly difficult to get the prices. You need to be up early, work to keep “good” accounts and when stakes are reduced arrange to open new accounts. Difficult but worth it. I got advised odds on all today except for Qaraaba where I got split stakes at 9/1 and 8/1.
Get back all the losses incurred so far this year?…not a chance! His first 2 selectiions are straight from the pin-stickers handbook. The first is a 2yr old maiden from a cl4 race, trying to win a gr3 which has 13 winners in the line up. If it wasn’t Noseda/Dettori it would be 50/1. The 2nd, Thomas C, who struggled to beat a 79 rated animal in a poor h/cap last time out – why wouldn’t Queally be riding him if he thought he was superior to Noble Mission? And NM cannot beat Astrology on all known form. Need I go on?
Newfangled nap of the meeting got 5/2 on betfair rubbish price to start with, gutted with all the reductions. Only horse I really fancied today stop now if I had any sense – now to lose it all on the rest of the card!
Rick my arse! This is Ladbrokes not Mickey Mouse. Anyway, why should RC beat Dunaden – when it’s already failed twice?
I see it’s down to 8/1 now – those lemmings are everywhere! Reply
Ladbrokes haven’t got a clue. The 10/1 their Odds Compilers put up was way out……….. a full 20% out. Hence they made a rick. Didn’t matter to me as they restricted me to peanuts on-line and won’t take any more than £25 quid in the shops.
I will be strongly opposing Red Cadeaux with Aiken. High Standing I think will give a good account for himself in the handicap.
Aitken is going to have to improve over half a stone to beat an in form Sea Moon. That puts me off him. He might not even finish in front of Red Cadeaux who looked a good ew bet at 10/1. Tough race
I’ve backed Aiken every time he’s run this year and see him as the danger to Sea Moon but will be having my biggest bet of the year on the Stoute horse. We don’t know that Tom has tipped Red Cadeaux yet of course. On a different note, it’s lucky for Tom Queally that he just has to point Frankel in the right direction given his shocking riding at the moment. He really is poor.
James – TF reading through the form lines I put my hand ups. Sea Moon is attracting a lot of support and is trading on BF at 7/2 but looks destined to go off at a lot shorter odds. It is the only horse being backed. Even I can admit I may have overlooked the credentials of the favourite so I have decided to back both Aitken and Sea Moon. The reason why I am so sweet on Aitken is that he is absolutely certain to love the soft going having won on heavy. With Buick in the saddle that is a winning combination. They say never give up on a winner and Aitken has won everything, so I don’t agree TF that Sea Moon has to improve 1/2 stone albeit Sea Moon does have a higher rating. You can only beat what is in front of you. It really p’sses me off when Tom Segal picks 2 in a race as you go into the race 1 point down. However, I am going to do the same on this occasion. Thanks. Of course I might lose twice as much if something else nabs them. I suggest you both do the same and forget Red Cadeaux.
Dunaden was well beaten by Aitken in France. Segal is praying on a return to 2011 form. I can’t see this happenin, therefore DUNADEN becomes my first Satuday SEGAL BISMARK not to WIN the race. Still sticking with Aitken and have been persuaded to double up with Sea Moon courtesy of James.
5 more stumers from PW today. Let’s hope 1 or 2 win for the lemmings. Personally, I doubt it. Here is my pin-stickers guide in opposition to PW. These are genuine selections with a pin
2.30 EFFIE B
3.45 LUI REI & DESERT LAW
4.25 CILL RIALAIG
What is it with people wanting Black Caviar. To win ( more than likely will ) look at it this way if Frankel went to Oz , would the Aussies want him to win. no way ! So come jockeys box her in , make it hard for her
Give it to James and TF for highlighting the credentials of Sea Moon. I read their opinions and they both convinced me to double up and they saved my bacon and made me a tidy profit in the process. Sorry for those on Dunaden, he was outclassed. He was not unlucky he was beaten fair and square. He will never beat the winner unless he improves out of all reasonable recognition or the winners for deteriorates. Reply
Wow even if given a good ride, she would have won by half to 3 quarters of a length. Poor from starter leaving them go when Society Rock clearly wasn’t ready but that’s always a risk when you’ve got a so called superstar in the race.
It’s been nice to pretend Frankel has a rival for speed but we all know that was a fantasy. The issue for me is if Sir Henry wants to correct the one major gap on his CV and win the Arc – he wins that far over a stiff mile I can’t see anything beating him at York. I always believed after seeing him essentially outstay Nathanial on his debut in Soft he would have won the Derby by 10 lengths and hopefully they will go to Paris.
james,was not saying you a dick,just giving my opinion also,and anyone saying DUNADEN,has to improve needs to watch race again,from best slot to on edge of trapdoor in the blink of an eye,because the jockey fell asleep.
What i like on this site,is being able to voice one’s opinion,wuthout mouthfuls of abuse flowing
i have used TOM’S 2 in the 4 25,only as saver’s against my biggest bet of the year,which is rain dependant,(more the better)but cannot work out just how soft it is,backed NEW PLANET, from 33.1 early in week.out to a high of 70/1 today,TOMS losses will pale into insignificance if i have read it wrong,
Good stuff Lay Tom I think we will get another big pay day on the Gosden horse in the Autumn. I just thought that the Hardwicke was where they sort of ended up with him rather than training him back from the race which is what I believe happened with Sea Moon. Give him a break now, assuming the weather improves big if probably and target a big prize.
TY James..ive been following this thread for ages i know i only put it up 10 mins b4 the off but hopefully someone saw it and had a saver on. i wasnt confident as it drifted a lot on bf went off at 85s
Good tipping from Tom overall this week needs to carry it forward now. My only other bet today is Zuider Zee just a small interest. May not stay but if he does he will outclass this lot form lines with Opininon Poll and Sea Moon through Dandino tell me. Not much of a price either.
I’m going to try this to make the chat more manageable for us.
Each week or so I will put up a post for the current week and the likely Pricewise Races.
The chat is very excellent,the opinions are interesting and there is no abuse, which is great but it difficult to use because of the number of comments. GO HERE FOR ALL NEW PRICEWISE CHAT TOPICS http://tipsterform.com/pricewise-june-week-4/
When it gets too full I will do another post. If it doesn’t work we will just go back to normal.
Black Caviar is a truly exceptional mare – I’m bound to say that Luke Nolan, a bit like Tom Queally, is a pretty unexceptional jockey. I had the biggest bet of my life today on Black Caviar – I’ve watched the race over and over again – she was magnificent, given all the cirumstances – he was a liability today. ‘Pound for pound’ though – Frankel is awesome.
What’s all the fuss about C*€p caviar. wins by a head Now everyone saying best horse in the world ( no one on here I might add ) now we know why they won’t be staying for the July Cup
Also why did the Queen make a special effort to come & see her in the winners enclosure, didn’t see the great Frankels race so don’t know if she did the same ?
Just the fact that he is going Irish I am opposing Segal and will lay it for a few grand. The form book gives it a chance but his record in Ireland is terrible. With a little bit of luck he will pay for the months shopping as the cupboards are getting a bit bare.
I have a comment on toms irish racing tips. Ive been following irish racing for years and a small bit of research will reveal that irish racing has the worst overround of any and all gambling mediums worldwide. I only bet on irish group races and even then you are being robbed unless you use bf.
So as lay tom says. Toms irish tip can in no way be considered value and personally i have never backed one of them.
I agree gawain and have also been following irish racing for many years and would add that often a lot of the field are genuine no hopers at the provincial tracks so they tend to go short the front of the market and lob everything else together and play it criminally safe in case there is a sneaky one waiting to sting them. I think at Galway and the Curragh etc things aren’t quite so bad.
I didnt want to say no hopers but yes thats it exactly. Half the field cant raise a gallop in a large nr of races. Galway for me means back Weld in every race have done for years. The curragh ive got mixed feelings about..the track is too wide..
Fairyhouse is a mine field for me…i back Noel Meade at navan he practically owns that place. I back welds older horses at leopardstown. Apart from that i try to figure out which bolger horse is being trained for the dewhurst.
Due to the erratic results you get in Ireland it is very hard to find winners. This is why I just can’t fathom out why Tom Segal picks Irish races on Sunday, where the form is near on impossible to unravel. I believe some Irish racing is crooked as the number of times you get hot favourites turned over and rank outsiders winning on the bridle is far, far too often. I personally think Down Royal, Thurles, Wexford, Ballinrobe, Rosscommon and Sligo are all places to avoid. I personally don’t have a problem with Fairyhouse and the Curragh.
Not interested in Irish racing especially the races ATR show from these tracks in the sticks which many are eluding to may be fixed on the basis that horses improve out of all recognition. Not fixed as in a conspiracy amongst jockeys but a fixed race by the fact that winning horses were previously non- triers. Gawain you’ll need to put your tips up a lot earlier for people to take you seriously, remembering we want quality not quantity.
Last year, I lost my 50 point bank on PWE-lost faith and abondoned ship!
In Feb of this year, after following this website, I started following Tom’s tips. 55 points down later, I realised that I had had enough of Pricewise. Couldn’t get on the prices, poor selctions, etc; I think Tom has had his day.
Heard good things about James Boyle and signed up at the end of May, with all the usual enthusiasm. Now, some 65 points down and wondering why lady luck has been so cruel to me! I’m in for the long haul though with James Boyle-his tips make sense, and I can get on at the prices; a lot of his tips have been unlucky. My bank is getting dangerously low again, but I remain optimistic things will change. Let’s hope so….
hardly an inspired “Pricewise ” tip in Fav Ile De Rey
It goes against the whole ethos of Pricewise
Was backing it but price has collapsed and is no value
will end up at 3/1 which is a ridiculous price for the race.
Dont be fooled into thinking it has a better chance than it did yesterday
Am switching ew to Gosden Horse a better option I feel
Like I said before PW has had his day. The lemmings who still support him will wind up backing 2 favs and a runner in a swamp in Ireland today. His RA results speak for themselves; 28runs/4 wins – and he still managed to make a whopping loss at the returned prices.
JOHN keep the faith with james u are right u can get the prices and he will turn it around . Tom i will never slag him off i only pick one of his at 20-1 at abig meeting i have not backed any of his and they have been poor prices. One final thing anybody help me tried to put a couple of bets with corals today two £10 bets and they wont entertain me this year i am about £300 up a couple of palmer golf selections.Good luck to everyone
Derek, I have the same problems with Boylesports as they are a complete and utter joke as I’ve posted before.
I’ve just had a 3rd account closed ( using a mate ) made £56 profit over 12 bets of nothing more than £20.
I’ve only taken them for about £750 over the 3 accounts – will hopefully taking them for a bit more using the 4th account.
Just a matter of doing them for every penny I can now and plenty of mates lining up to help me.
James Boyle is Henry Rix all over again owning horses and not putting them up on his tipping line.
And what will happen now is , he will put it up everytime to avoid times like today and you guessed right it will get beat everytime.
He said ” i am not backing it ” but 16s down to 8s , well someone did.
Note for all professinal tipsters , Don’t own horse’s they will make you look like you are putting your paymasters away. Reply
To be fair Dave his exact words were……..
I’m leaving Newcastle alone because of the ground and also none of the races are of real interest to me, though hopefully my fellow Fast Shot will run a big race. With my luck of late, he will, as I’m not backing him (don’t want to be a jinx!). He should love the ground though, won’t have an issue with the track and seems well-drawn. It’s a horribly tough race at the same time, but I wouldn’t put anyone off having a few bob on him at fancy prices.
Dave why don’t u stop backing boyles tips and pick your own donkeys again I guess your like most people who follow a tipster a serial loser who does his doe year after year hence why you follow a tipster !!! Bet you were not complaining in April when he was 60 points up !! If u can’t take losing runs u might aswell not gamble at all
Dave, just relax mate. James Boyle is as honest as the day’s long. He’s also one of the best value tipsters out there. Losing runs are inevitable when you’re looking for value angles into races. Stick with him, it won’t be long before June’s losses are a distant memory. The man is no mug. You’ll be kicking yourself if you jump ship now.
Had a small bet o fast shot james boyle is the only tipster i trust last year he had a losing run of 49! still made a good long term profit.Message to gerry ive been stopped by spoilsports already william hill would turn in his grave at these modern firms.Did not back toms winners prices too low will wait for one of his tominators!Best of luck everybody.
Derek I am with you all the way. He will need a Tominator or two to dig himself out of this muck. I am intend to have 2 point wins on horses greater than 10-1 available on BF and am leaving these slim shots alone unless they coincide with my own judgement. Haven’t really got an opinion on today’s Curragh selections, but Gosden and Buick are a formidable force and I believe if handling the ground Izzy Top is the one to beat. Saying that Segal has hit a purple patch so he might be worth following.
PW is becoming a standing joke. But, I’m not laughing it is costing me a fortune! When you can’t land an 10/11 shot you have got a problem. OK yesterday he landed two small winners but this only served to recover stake money and a small profit. Not Pricewise as in value, just horses any one of us could pick. I placed my bet before the A O’B withdrawals, so I was cooked by the rule 4′s. LT’s confidence on Izzy Top almost persuaded me to leave the race a lone. I am such a mug!
Have had enough today of all the information that tipsters give in the racing post etc etc, i am giving up on horseracing as it is costing me a fortune, this horse is weighted to its best ( romps home). This horse is precouciously bred (runs like a blackpool donkey), this horse will relish the ground ( runs like its on ice). Good luck guys to any of you who really do make a profit in this game not just up some weeks down the next three, im sticking to sports with form that is not changeing like the wind.
What does everyone think of toms selections in these conditions all tipsters are in a mess. James hugh t have not won it must be the going ,they cant all be bad tipsters. Reply
Its been very strange the last 2 months or so. I can’t think of anyone who is tipping winnerSs. It must be the ground conditions, nothing else has really changed.
I couldn’t see Trade Commissioner being beat but no price so I’ve doubled with Farhh. Fingers crossed. Very scared of Nathanial not sure about this crackerjack king blew out big time only time it’s tried a tough international race. Not for me but good luck.
P’ssing me off big time now- was a loyal Segal fan – now disillusioned – how can this geezer possibly claw back YTD losses – near on impossible – all the mouthy supporters kicking me in knackers in January seem to have gone silent – this Segal guy is serious crap – any replays be serious as John Mackenro would say
I dont think it is just Segal followers who are having a hard time James Boyle is on a terrible run something like 35 consective losers now and more than 70 pts down since last winner on 9th June. Hugh T also only 1 winner in last 50 or so bets !
My worry is with the July Cup meeting starting this week and 3 big races next Saturday there is likely to be a lot of bets given out and with this wet weather forcast to be around all week, I am not sure I will be backing every selection.
Can’t spell John McEnroe either Rob lol , speaking of tennis try betting on that , won £200 today by betting number of games Radwanka would win over 7:5 short odds but who cares as long as you win , given up on PW a while ago cost me a fortune , bring on the Olympics easy money to be made on that
interseting, satu is the second fav in that race and is one that he tipped before and it won. Satu gets the softer/yielding ground and looking at past form clarach does not, i just had a lovely each way bet on satu and will have another chunk later (as hopefully it will drift) propped up by the short priced fav backers Reply
Tom Segal always effects the market and you can get other horses overpriced. One thing I noticed is, horses that are backed AGAINST the Pricewise selection tend to run very well.
Rob, Tom Segal is not serious crap but you are talking serious crap. During this spell of shit ground etc Tom has tipped 5/1 9/2 6/1 7/1 11/1 6/1 7/1 winners out of his last 38 selections(not to mention all the 2nds). This equates to a small profit of 15.5 but still a profit nonetheless over that period of recent form when no other tipster could find anything and suggests a man actually very much in form.
Iv followed him on and off for years but gave up a few months back unless something jumps out at me or i come in at the end of a ong losing run and keep backing until i get a nice winner from him. It’s not toms fault nobody can get the advised prices but do not call him a shit tipster, he is obviously better than any of us at calling races.. I realised anyone following his advice week in week out will almost certainly lose money though due to slashed odds and limited bets etc… Eightybarrackstret will romp today in the 4.20 at limerick by the way Reply
Nice one PB. Was that a fluke or can you do it again?
Thanks for posting
Tom’s no better or worse than the rest of us in my opinion has days when he couldn’t buy a winner and days when it seems easy. The issue some of us I think take with is the Post marketing hype, not Tom’s fault at all. And if you really look at it, those winners you mention like Maarek – and believe me he was late getting on that bandwagon those of us who watch the Irish racing have been cleaning up on that horse when there’s deep ground – Ile de Re, Touch Gold – just watch his maiden run at Haydock and he’s in your ‘notebook’ for handicaps – even Thomas Chippendale against a false favourite who had a hard race in the Derby, aren’t quite the hard to find winners he made his name with. I’ve argued in the past he needs more winners and I’m glad to see he’s now putting up solid selections based on form and race watching. I genuinely believe he’s re-applied himself recently after a shocking run where he was putting up horse I don’t think he’d ever seen run. But his followers have perhaps been spoilt a bit over the years.
Well tipped Point-breaker with Eightybarrackstreet..you were spot on. Backed Segals tip Clarach at 9/4…poor price but at least it’s a winner! I fancy either Dunroe Boy or Turnonthegas to win the 5.05 at Bellewstown..
2 shots in the dark…dont fancy either on all known form
Hope prices dont shorten??
its a given they will shorten before you are out of your bed
Sir Lancelot & Hajrass better prices because of Tom so happy days for me
In Ireland we would call him a stocking!
His selections today were tenuous to say the least
I can see his percieved logic on both selections but when you look at the form the logic turns out to be a guess
Lets have one for tomorrow then PB? Get yourself back up to 66%. The Varian filly is well handicapped tomorrow. Just has tobe backed left on 88. I’ll do a double with main fancy Golden Lilac who I’ve already backed and as predicted is now odds on, as predictions go it wasn’t exactly a revelation but good trading position. If Dr Yes had a decent jockey on I reckon he’d have a shout as well but can’t back him with TQ on board.
I think you are right about Mince. It is probably worth a bet at 8/1 but now that TS has got his claws into it it will probably start qround 5/1. It’s a competitive race as well; lots of unexposed/improving 3yr olds, so very tricky. I wouldn’t rule out Piri Wanga, back over 6f, and leading at this distance at Ascot lto.
Ok tips those maybe an each way treble might get a return???De Royer Dupre is bringing Giofre over to take on the fabre a tip in itself and Mince is clearly decent. Not sure about the one in the first.
I notice that TS strike rate for 2012 is around 10%, which means that the average price of his winners needs to be 10/1 just to break even. Is that likely to happen? His last 7 winners have returned average prices of less than 5/1 – even at recommended prices they averaged out at around 7/1. You cannot make money backing TS selections – even the most diehard supporter must see that. TS’s time has gone.
Out to 4/1 now I thought did well to win time before last and on previous form I like her. I’ve followed Tom in on this one. Agree Accession a big danger. Small stakes though it’s anybodies guess what the field will do they could be all over the track.
Feel like the guy from “Airplane”. Looks like I picked a bad day to give up backing TS. Only stopped cos I thought I’d have a day off while E Fremantle was on PWE duty, then just after the off I noticed Paul Kealy had stepped in and bagged 14/1 winner Gloria Directa ew. (Fri 13th strikes!)
Thought Giofra looked a good bet , While watching Ch 4 racing said that was PW selection, didn’t bother backing it then , nearly lumped on Golden Lilac especially after the A Fabre interview, think he was waiting in the winners enclosure to come in
Obviously Golden Lilac is better than that but I would have been waiting in the winners enclosure with Fabre – think it’s still running though! Winner ended up at 11.94 BSP so claws a decent chunk back for followers. Anyone got one in the last? I’m on Halling’s Comet but it’s a big guess.
I make that +15.33pts now for PW 2012 (at advised). +36pts and an ROI of 10% if backing all 1pt each way. Not up to his usual amazing standards but pretty good considering everybody seems to be struggling. Reply
I had a quick look at the difference between the Betfair SP and the Advised price on the 26 winners so far this year. It looks like you would be about 54 points better off if you got the advised price every time.
I couldn’t split Jack’s Revenge and Halling’s Comet, so had a fiver on each. Intended to do a reverse forecast but got distracted by the kids. I also abandonned PW today, so maybe a bit of Friday 13th crept in.
TF , do you really back exactly as this site shows Reply
No Dave, I semi arb them to get a better price when I can.
It doesn’t always work but when it does its good.
The idea is to have say £200 quid on at 10/1 and try and lay £100 of it off
at 8/1……….. to leave you roughly £100 on to win £1200 ish
It’s all well and good to quote the previous days prices for PW but as soon as they arrive at the printers their passed to the bookies. The reality, as everybody knows, is you are sometimes fortunate to get the price, although generally to reduced stakes.
PW is a losing tipster this year and pretending otherwise is just being in denial.
Most tipsters reach this point at some time, some earlier than others.
Luckily i didn’t put a real money bet on it…I won a very small amount on Andy Murrey reaching Wimbledon final..Am leaving out racing for now until weather clears otherwise i’ll wait until mid-late october for new NH season.
I actually agree that Bonnie Brae has the best chance in the race, but at 8/1 (now 11/2) it is hardly ‘price’ wise. He’s weighted up to the hilt, so there is better value elsewhere.
ATLANTIC SPORT could race in a swamp, and ran well in the Buckingham Palace. His Haydock win last weekend proves his good form,but also pushes his rating up to 98. However, he won off 105 in ’09, and is no worse a horse now. My one concern is his poor showing at Newmarket off 95 in identical conditions, but a weaker race. That was his seasonal re-appearance, so I’m hoping it was merely a pipe-opener in preparation for Ascot.
HARRISON GEORGE doesn’t make much immediate appeal on 2011 form, but that was all at a mile, and he should benefit from the move back to 7f. His handicap mark has plummeted, and Harry Bentley claims a further 3lb. We’re taking a chance on fitness, but at 22/1 (now 16/1) I’m prepared to gamble.
Hugh Taylor can’t buy a winner at present. Tom is tipping well and hitting the board with plenty as well. It’s like night and day compared to a couple of months ago. I can see his followers – you lot, now that Lay Tom has abandoned ship! – getting this deficit down. I’m abroad for Goodwood and Galway but it’ll be interesting to see how things go if we suddenly get firm ground – in a way it might be better if the wet weather persists as Tom is adjusting to it now.
i try get best odds between 830 and 845 bet 365 always usually go back to their early show which was actually 9to1 but stayed 13to2 which was annoting couldnt find better with the other bookies i have account with either.
More of a joke Mark is that the price of the horse is now less than 10/1. I find it hard to believe it was ever at 33′s – even with two NR’s. Hugh’s form has been very poor recently but he can turn it round with a couple of big priced winners – if you can ever get the prices quoted. I think Ace Of Spies might be worth an E/W punt in the same race – struggled of late but is a C&D winner and back down to his last winning mark. Just the sort of horse Conor Dore (who has a decent record at Southwell)could slip under the radar and spring a surprise with although I think the most likely winner is going to be the fav Jonnie Skull.
just prefer Brian who myself as well but was on him last time at better price. Our girl lucy looked a bit lazy to me last time so might have quite a bit more in the locker though. Neither worth a bet at current odds might get on brian if he drifts
Hugh Ts record is on ATR at the foot of his column. He was miles up this year using the same hype as the Post employ – ie the price is there for customers for whatever they want (although ATR admit this is not realistic) – and went ballistic at the Epsom Derby meeting. Since then had 1 winner until yesterday i think, but yesterdays paid for 33 losers, based on the way the post markets Tom.
What’s the word for the King George? I was all over Sea Moon at R Ascot but Nathaniel is class and can see why some thought Dunaden was unlucky. Masked Marvel was 120 on betfair last night is that too big – could be a trading opportunity.
Well done jb 9-1 winner hope he will go on now the thing with james is u can get on at the price. I will never rubbish hugh and tom but the prices on offer i have never obtained and i am retired and have the time unlike a lotof workers.
I’m drawing a line through the Trojan Rocket form, which includes Crew Cut and Rafaaf, as it looked a poor race. It was a blanket finish, and they have all picked up extra weight.
Rivas Rhapsody is unexposed and progressive, and has form on bottomless ground. But I don’t back horses at 4/1 unless I know they are going to win.
My money is on Rash Judgement. His last win was 2 years ago, but it was over 6f at Newmarket on Soft ground – and he was top weight that day. He is very much back at a winning mark, proved by near-misses at Haydock and Goodwood (both 6f soft) recently, where the standard of opposition was at least as good as tonight. I will be astonished if he doesn’t make the frame. He’s my 11/1 NAP.
Dunaden is poor value in my opinion and is certainly not Pricewise. NATHANIEL might be short odds but is the form horse on Eclipse running. I really think if Nathaniel reproduces this form he will be near on impossible to beat. The threat certainly won’t come from last years Arc winner albeit I think he will be in the hunt a furlong from home. Nathaniel is going to be far too good for these once had beens. Lump on big at 11/4 I am and I am expecting to be quids up later this pm. Stu’s banker treble Bilble Belt (newmkt) Cathedral (newmkt) Carlton House (Ascot). Bismarck Dunaden
Historically, it’s probably the best field ever for the King George.Couldn’t fancy Dunaden ..a definite lay for me.
In my opinion,Gosdens horse will take the beating.Have backed Nathaniel and Questioning in singles and an ew double.
Also ew on the 2 PW selections in the 3.55.
I’m not much of a favourite backer, and this is not an easy race with several having a strong claim. However, CHARLOTTE ROSINA makes appeal based on her beating of subsequent duel-winner Athenian (who’s form was boosted again last night). The selection’s last run in Listed grade over a furlong too far boosts her claims today.
The danger is fellow C&D winner Lollina Pollina off bottom weight.
In view of recent results, why don’t we have a little
Beat Pricewise competition amongst ourselves?
The flaw in Pricewise reasoning is that; just because a
horse appears to represent good “value” that doesn’t mean
it is a good bet and it’s often best to leave the race alone.
So, some rules.
* No Pricewise extra, newspaper selections only.
* Provide same number of selections as Uncle Tom,
if he has two in a race, so can you but you need
only have one in the race, thus giving you a crack
at another race.
* Don’t have to use same races as Segal, since he
sometimes picks races where there really isn’t a
viable selection to be made, betting just for the
sake of it.
* Competition can be ongoing and monthly scores kept,
or not, as the case may be.
So to start the ball rolling, here are my selections
Ascot 1:35 White Frost
Ascot 3:55 Eton Forever and Brae Hill.
I’m not having a selection in the King George because
I have slight doubts about Nathaniel bouncing but I
can’t really oppose him. Danedream would likely be a
better “anti” bet, but I’m not playing in this one. Reply
Interesting post Promo. I think Pricewise is very mathemitical, if you know what I mean.
He picks a horse he thinks is the wrong price based on its previous performances. If you were always backing horses that
were too big v their true price then you would make a profit over time. Some of the picks appear to make no sense at all
but if he picks a 10/1 against a 3/1 that has beaten it say twice already, then he is replying on the 3/1 not running to form and is really saying that if you ran the race 100 times they 10/1 chance would show a profit.
The only horse I fancy today is Ryan Moores ride in the last race at Ascot. Hopefully I will have some money left to lump on it or more likely I will have frittered my pot away on all the other races. Can’t choose between Sea Moon and Nathaniel in the big race. Instance is a speculative punt at 50 on betfair.
A poor day for Donks – Charlotte Rosina 3rd and Nathaniel beaten a nose!
At least I steered clear of Al Muheer and Dunaden. Terrible tipping from Tom, but I thought Noble Citizen might sneak something.
It’s unusual for Tom to jump on the ‘unlucky horse’ bandwagon, I just couldn’t see how Dunaden was going to turn it round with Sea moon let alone beat Nathaniel and the Arc winner. Easier to say with hindsight I spose, but predictable.
Had a shocking day with Nathaniel being beaten by the narrowest of margins. Had a £100 on Gospel Choir at 4-1 so clawed back some of the losses thanks James. Had I had the balls I would have done the forecast. Am going to do Judge N Jury today in 5.05 Ascot for only reason that I have followed it all year. Only staking £50 at 16-1 this time though.
I backed Nocturn last night at odds between 6.8 and 7.2, the only horse I’m seriously interested in today, but unfortunately Yeooww came out whilst I was deciding whether to trade out at 4.9ish – didn’t have enough on to make it worthwhile to trade so will probably just let it ride now unless comes down into the low 3s. Think this horse has quite an engine but worried about his mental readiness today against some experienced types.
Good luck in the 5.05 looks impossible and Expose has as good a chance as any back in trip. For what it’s worth I think Mass Rally will probably travel all over these and not win, as usual, whilst if Jack Dexter’s jockey is prepared to throw everything at him to keep him in touch he should finish well.
Wouldn’t even have looked at him if you hadn’t posted Aidan. Off out for tea on the back of it happy days! Did Mass Rally e/w as well, ran exactly as predicted and Jack Dexter just missed out on 4th. Big handicap in him on softer ground at 6f.
See Noble Citizen is running again tomorrow. What’s the betting Segal tips it again? – will probably say it was unlucky last Sat. Desperation stakes methinks – and it will wind up half the price it should be.
I am not saying Rugged Cross won’t win but trading at slightly over 11/4, is this really pricewise or stupidity. No value whatsoever. I personally fancy Prince of Johanne but the odds of 7/2 are also restrictive. My advise is to leave the race well alone. So what if it wins, your not going to get rich backing 11/4 shots. At this crap price you would have to back it to a grand and you will be bricking it until the result. Thumbs down for me. Don’t get stung and if it wins as I said SO WHAT!
It’s not pricewise LT – good to have you back btw – as we expected it historically I agree, BUT it’s a pants day of racing and he has to put up something. Small stakes double with Golden Lilac to try and bolster the price but the serious stuff starts tomorrow in Ireland.
Rugged Cross is a plausible, but not very convincing selection
for Tom, pure guesswork, on the available evidence.
However, I tend to disregard the selections other than
Saturdays and the big meetings.
Ladys First and Prince of Johanne look even more plausible
to me. The only possible explanation I can think of for the
odds about Ladys First is that she is only rated 100 on
official figures, but 3-yo fillies frequently make a nonsense
of such calculations. The chance of Prince of Johanne should
be fairly obvious.
Bannock has not been getting home and perhaps this is a bid
to toughen him up before another switch back to 6f or 7f,
maybe the Portland would suit him. Maybe Tom has a crystal ball.
There’s some decent handicaps but point taken Aidan in that there’s no group racing. I meant more about having a serious bet, by my standards as a working with a young family man, which I intend to do on the Weld (surprise surprise) horse in the 1m4f handicap. Massiyn beat him 1st time out now rated 102, finished 3 lengths ahead of Beach Of Falesa – ok improved since but now rated 92 – and he’s off 80. Respect the top weight and Chicago has franked Hay Point but I think he’s a 7-4 shot, not 11-4. Just a shame so many 7-4 shots get beat!!!
Knew the Weld filly was a stayer hope a few took the hint and had a few more quid on than me, draw put me off slightly!!! Still good result though. Paid for the wedge on Encrypted Message though with a few quid to spare. Two in a race, I’ve had my doubts in the past but I’m converted!
Gary o Brien is excellent took him on today and lost bigtime! Then again took on Tom with a couple and won BSP 21.2 on the Weld filly so can’t grumble. Seem to recall GO’B he had an amazing Galway last year as well so could well be worth following rest of the week. Any fancies for Goodwood? I’m going to have a look now.
Reckon Chill is a big player at Galway tomorrow might be worth a few quid ew think he’s been running well over hurdles despite winter ground and could be due a big performance off a mark of 72 – 7lb claim from the lad who rode the handicap hurdle winner today. Draw not great but hopefully 2m trip offsets that.
It’s Jacobs Cat for me all the way, even from a poor draw. At 3/1 or thereabouts I think this horse is still value even at these odds with Hughes on board. With Askaud and Jacks Revenge to contend with and at 7/1 there is also limited each-way value on more exposed selections if that is your preference. Retrieve looks the interesting one of the Pricewise tips. I am backing this one only.
I thought Danadana had 3 quick races at the start of the season and if he’s improved in the 2 months since then he could defy the 8lb rise but not really confident so just a few quid on but he’s pretty obvious anyway.
Don’t like any of Tom’s today.
The real Hurricane Higgins was a wayward character but
got beyond his local gaffs (Class 5 AW Maidens) to see
the bright lights. I won’t be paying the entrance fee
to see how this one performs.
Just Two for me today:
Stature 3:45 Gwd 12/1
Ariyfa 4:55 Gwd 14/1
I am backing the horses to show normal improvement
rather than betting on personalities, reputations
or other hoped-for imponderables.
It gets better
Thats not called tipping thats called picking a trainer thats already had a winner or 2. There is no skill in that and I for one prefer when a tipster uses his judgement to wade through form and find best horse
if anyone out there still thinks that Tom Segal will turn the losses around for the year then they are seriously dellusional Reply
He’s only 25pts down at the minute and that’s after what can only be called a nightmare year.
I fancy he will end up in profit as usual.
The rain meant Vastoneas did the business yest thankfully but I cannot get on Betfair from this rubbish internet cafe on the Algarve to have a bet today some stupid gambling laws. Anyway I should be in the pool and would have backed Wise Old Owl on decent ground but assume its soft. Good luck all. so neh mind
22:17 Betfair and Oddschecker showing following horse attracting big money Heavy Metal 10-1 14:45 Good,
Wild Coco 5.8-1 15:45 Good
Sadlers Rock 15:15 is attracting substantial money at 2-1. £20k stacked up. I like the first two but think Frankie must have a good chance of following up on R.Ascot with Colour Vision. Very competitive but my money which will be huge after today’s windfall will be on Frankie. Thanks Tom. I am still going to Bismarck your Irish tips though. Reply
Look like obvious Pricewise bets. Good work.
The hurricane came to Goodwood, blew a few satchels away, and I missed out. Shame on me! At least I didn’t oppose it, because I have the utmost respect for Mark Johnston who has been supplying me with plenty of winners over the past couple of weeks.
I also have great respect for John Gosden, who is another hot honcho at Goodwood. The question now is: When Gosden starts having winners will Tom change horses(trainers)in time?
Hannon is also on my list of trainers right now and I changed my mind about My Queenie today. With due humility I had to bend over and take it, no choice, that’s the nature of the game.
My big hope for today was White Frost, which didn’t run, it’s a winner without a penalty, I hope it comes out again soon before the handicapper gets his claws into it. It was just touched off by Dimension on Saturday.
Let me tell you how I found this site. Last year I had been using Tom’s selections as a shortcut. Tired of seeing some of my selections getting the odds compression treatment after Tom had tipped them I decided to just use Tom’s picks but also to use my own selections in the same race if it seemed prudent to do so.
Between us I had a good run, but after Tom hit his recent dry spell, the rational thing to do was to oppose the selections and stop including them altogether; another
I frequently oppose out-of-form trainers with success. Embrace the lucky and shun the unlucky is a sound principle in life, particularly where chance is involved.
Prudence dictated that I find out how the Pricewise selections were doing over the long haul, so a search brought me to this site. I’m very impressed with the
guys who have been having £20 on uncle Tom’s picks.
Have you been doing this all year through thick and thin?
Such devotion borders on religious fervour, I tend to check out when the Dear Leader wonders towards the cliff.
Sooner or later the winning/losing run comes to an end and I had started assuming Tom’s selections would lose, assumptions can be dangerous, eventually you get bitten,
Ouch! But those assumptions served me well, for a time.
Now that Tom is back I’ll be mixing his selections with my own again, so if he suddenly hits a bad patch you can blame me, if you’re so inclined. Reply
Its rare for Tom to get 2 winners on the same day. I’m glad a few people had them in doubles and other multiples to ease the pain.
He doesn’t exactly have a great strike rate either, so I’m wary of any talk that he is back. I was actually thinking if after he tips a winner would it to be better to let the next 10 tips run before coming back in.
Actually, TF, now is the time to follow Tom. You will be
betting on a winning run. There’s no way of knowing when a winning or losing run will end, only that it has started.
If he has a long hot summer, you’ve lost out. The thing to do, is to follow him until the losers appear, then duck out until he starts finding winners again, at which time you resume operations. For an illustration of the principle you could read The Men Who Broke the Bank at Monte Carlo(I think that’s the name of the book).
As I said, earlier, embrace the lucky, shun the unlucky.
It’s always better to follow winners than losers.
Leaving out some tips and backing others is dangerous – take from me you will be sick if you miss out on a big priced winner after backing countless losers.
Surely the best plan is to stick with it even through the bad times, just make sure you have a big enough bank to cope and back every selection.
As for Tom having 2 winners in a day being a rarity – this is true but if betting in EW doubles and trebles, it is surprising how many times you get a decent return as he has so many near misses at big prices.
Well done to everyone who won plenty , how long will it be till anyone’s slagging him off again , gave up on him a while ago lost to much of my hard earned cash , Only one certainty in racing and that’s Frankel. betting on sports that give me a greater chance of showing a profit
Cheers James will check these out. Surprised none of these were the horses receiving support last night. Have wagered a few quid on these already but may have to go in balls deep and back some of these also. Reply
I agree Tom. That was very odd. The support for the horses you flagged can not be insignificant.
People trying to get a lot of money on 12 hours or more before the race must have good reason.
Maybe another Tipster like Henry Rix?
LAY TOM.i think you are very brave to be betting a frankie fav,?.this year he is 16/59,favs.and some of them on both sides were 100/30.the figures include his own trainers and outside rides,the outside rides incidentaly,are minutely the better ratio.Yes he might come back to bite my bum,thats the nature of the betting beastWhen you consider the fire power at his disposal,the figures are pathetic,BE LUCKY
Missed all the fun! Good to see some multiples landed as it´s been an expensive year for anybody who routinely doubles up etc as well as the advised singles. Tom Segal finds it easier to get winners at Galway than Goodwood haha nice one Tom put a few away there!
Always the way. Backed his selections on GW Day one. Nothing. Could not get anything on yesterday with work commitments and two massive winners. Today of course I backed his selections and nowhere. Aaaaaah!!!!! Don’t think I’ll bother in future. I seem to hex him.
yes thats often how it goes after a mega day like yesterday.
I did back his selections in EW doubles to minimum stakes with no return but fortunately backed heavy metal @ 10/1 and made a small profit on the day.
James, sorry to hear that you have passed some of yesterdays winnings back to the enermy. I by contrast have had another good day, only on the back of Wild Coco & Heavy Metal which because of the support I was seeing on BF last night I waded in big with some of yesterdays winnings thinking these must be Pricewise leaked tips. TF I believe you thought the same, I hope you backed them also. I didn’t follow the money on Sadlers Rock and went down with Colour Vision, but finished the day off with Stirling Ballad. Almost as good a day as I had yesterday.
To top it I received a phone call from Betfair on Wednesday who said if I backed of layed 5 bets from my mobile to at least £40 on Goodwood or Galway on Wednesday and Thursday I would be entitled to an extra 10% of my winnings up to £400 (net of losses). Well because of the last two days I am waiting for another £400 to be creditted to my account. They say they will be crediting it by the 5th. I might put the money on one horse on Saturday since it is a bonus. I’ll let you know. Good luck to all.
8 15,anyone who follows betfair money that is backed up,like LAY TOM put up last night with devestating wins from all 3.tonight there is over £10,000 backed op for 3:10 good.JOHNNY CASTLE.bookies at minute are 20/1 down to 16/1.
hope this helps some. Reply
I checked that one at about 12-30 Phil.
The total actually matched up to now is £3400.
The way Betfair works that means £1700 has been bet on the horse.
I think someone was trying to Spoof that one by putting 10k in the queue.
You need to keep an eye on that sort of stuff.
15:10 Good Johnny Castle 20-1 as DaveF has pointed out is getting substantial market support and needs to be closely looked at because I can’t make an obvious case for this selection and will be backing it to a small profit. I can not on form see him beating Captain Bertie trading at 11-1. Gatewood at short odds 85/40 is my tip to double your money in the first. Surely he must be the form selection and in the second Aljamaheer is good at around 5-1. No money on this horse yet but will be carrying mine. These are my tips back them at your peril but you will get at least a run for your money. I look forward to see Toms tips tomorrow.
Glad to hear you followed up yesterday LT. My comment was about the policy of doubling up etc Tom´s bets rather than my own betting which is limited at present as I´m on my hols – I missed all the excitment on Wednesday completely but did manage to get 20 quid on Wild Coco yesterday!
As for today a quick perusal of the RP online tells me I agree with Tom on Stipulate, although a step forward from Tales of Grimm would not surprise me at double figure odds and I will desert Gatewood this time. Having cleaned up at 13/2 at York and followed up at Epsom and Ascot I will leave him to win at 7/4. My idea of a bet against him is Quest For Peace. Good luck all.
Cheers LT glad you had another good day it’s ok though on my hols so missed all of Wednesday but managed to get on Wild Coco yest. Comment was about the policy of doubling up etc Tom’s tips not my own betting, which is severely restricted at present.
As for today quick scan at RP.com tells me I agree with Stipulate but Tales Of Grimm may well take a step forward today. Not interested in the handicap but having been onto Gatewood from York through Epsom today is the day I’ll take him on at under 5/2 and Quest For Peace is my fancy. Good luck all.
Well, Tom put me on to a winner yesterday (4:50 GY Rebel Fitz). I only looked at the race because he tipped Drive Time, can he do the same for me again today?
I backed Fulbright on Saturday (got 10/1) and the previous time at 16/1 so, for me, the party’s over. He looks a sprinter.
Bannock may be in to assist Fulbright or run on his merits.
He has looked a sprinter, but on Sunday he swerved 100yds
out over 1m at Pontefract (£18k race). Did he fail to get
home or did the rider take a tug so he wouldn’t have a penalty going into today’s race (£78k)?
I’m not saying that’s what happened, I guess it’s just a
£60,000 question! Prince of Johanne was interfered with
but was not overexerting himself at the time, he’ll be
trying harder today.
I’ve taken Dave F’s tip and had a little on Johnny Castle at
18/1, it may have been gelded since it’s last run and stable
has done well here. How can you tell how much money is going on?
Gatewood goes up in class and trip and is a terrible price.
I had it first time out at 13/2 so he’s another who owes me
nothing. Will take a chance on Songcraft at 7/2.
Gregorian (2:35) , with Group 1 form, looks a good bet at 7/2.
Angels will Fall looks to be Tom’s best chance today, I may
have a little on but would save on Ortensia and Beyond Desire.
Didn’t quite get the price I wanted on Quest For Peace because I can’t get on betfair for some reason but 6/1 pays for a few ice creams!
I may get back on the Gatewood train later in the season but was too short against a class horse today. Tales Of Grimm is frustrating at the moment needs to get out of the stalls. 1m2f on quick ground I still think we will see a decent horse.
It was very pleasing to see a few of you had a good day. Made a loss myself nothing too big as at least Tom picked Fulbright which recovered most. Mark you were spot on with Fulbright before the tips were announced and James you also with Quest for Peace. Any thoughts 4 tomorrow. I’m off to Thirsk Saturday but have put a nice wedge on Nahrain and Alben Star in the Stewards. I was pleasantly surprised to see both a being backed off the board on BF. Well see what happens.
TF, love your website. Been using it for years.
However, please can you also post the profit figures using his advised prices please? I get them on at 8:30 every morning and the betfair sp figures aren’t as relevant, as the prices are sometimes half what he has advised.
Much apprciated. Reply
Thanks Jay. I will have a look and see how much the difference and if its not too much work to find it. The problem with advised prices is you can only get small amounts on. Using BSP gives an accurate measure of worst case what would happen if you are betting in bigger stakes, say £100/£200 or more. Usually to bigger stakes you can beat BSP, but only very rarely can you get the advised.
As James said which bookmakers Jay. They will be skint when the word gets out and they hold their prices to 08:30. Sounds like music to my ears. Forget the £148 million on offer on the Euro millions if it is true a will as Harry Enfield would say “Be considerably richer than yow” in a year backing them with your bookie and laying them off on Betfair at 1/2 the odds.
Prices were not available at 8.30 this morning from what I could see, Motivado was about 11-2 at that stage. Jarrow was 20-1 with ladbrokes and hit it with William Hills for a short time as weell, but I didnt see any of the other prices been available as advised. Please let me know Jay, as It near impossible get advised prices on a regular basis.
The prices were at the shorter price 8 30 AM,BUT BEFORE 9 00 AM.Two came back at the advised price for a short period.The one that did not was MOTIVADO,who only came back at a max.8/1,for a short period
what a disaster james boyle has become , think its over for me and him
James destroyed Pricewise on a 100 bet challenge that we organised. He may be on a bad run but he knows his stuff and will show a profit over the year.
They all have awful runs. Tom Segal, Hugh Taylor,James Boyle, Henry Rix etc etc………. but if you manage your bankroll properly you will make a long term profit.
yeh James boyle is having a nightmare run but he has been close with a lot of big priced horses and as I back them all EW I have done OK recently, but he really does need to find some winners soon as he has given back all the profit made on the flat this season.
A few days without a bet so I’m having a few quid each way on Bible Belt at Leopardstown tonight. Needs to prove she’s trained on fropm 3 to 4 but if Jessie H has got her back then 6/1 is a decent price.
TF thanks for posting Saturdays Pricewise nice and early. Have been trying to back Sun Central since 6:00 Friday evening but there has been no liquidity all night best price on BF to a few quid has been 5-1 I have managed to get £50 on with Stan James & our spoil sports, but are really keen on this one and now it has the Pricewise confidence it makes me determined to pile a lot more on it. Galician has been backed since 1:00 on BF but nothing too significant. Not so sure he will cope with Mince, so I will be covering my money there. No opinion on Bernie. I say one thing GIVE THE BOOKIES A TANNING WITH SUN CENTRAL. I can see the SP being 3-1 or even 5/2 when the serious punters dive in.
For all of you with iPads, Racing Post have launched their new iPad app which gives you 30 days obligation free access to the online version of the paper. Very good offer, and it also means you get pricewise at 2000 the night BEFORE so you can play the bookies at their own game. Pete
Reply Thanks Pete.
I don’t have an iPad though. http://www.racingpost.com/mobile/ipad-app/
Does this mean that the Printers will lose out because the Geeks will be getting the Pricewise bets first now?
Pefe I’ll check that out thanks. By the way in the next week or so I am going to make a post that could provide us punters with loads of complementary bookies introductory free bets. Nothing illegal just clever thinking but I need to check my theory out first and even after that I would ask TF to delete my post after a week as I don’t want to many people knowing. l’ll post it next Saturday. Watch this space.
Is someone on here with an iPad going to be kind enough to post the tips the night before for us then? Reply
There might be a way of doing it without an iPad Chris. I might be wrong but I think you may be able to view it on a Laptop using ZUNE.
I will keep you informed.
It would definitely be worth doing to get the bigger odds. i assume there will be a flood of people trying to get the bets on at exactly 8pm on the dot, so whether there will be enough in the market on betfair to get on is another matter
Might be worth a few quid e/w (which normally I say is a mugs game as you are doubling your stake and potntial losses for minimal gain) and I would also normally say avoid Segal in Ireland like the plague as well as group 1 races, but his tip Wexford Opera does have a really good chance of at least getting a place. At a price at 6-1 or bigger why not although back him but he has Probably to contend with the probable winner in my opinion. Tin Horse can this beat Moonlight Cloud-I don’t think so, but at 40-1 if you can get this price your not going it lose much and it has e/w written all over it, but I find it near on impossible to make a case out for it as there are at least 6 that have better form. Best race of the day.
On all known form Tin Horse has no chance but having backed him in the French Guineas off the back off his Lagardere performance, I think he could go well especially if there’s pace which as we know is never a sure thing over the channel. I can’t get the Post would love to hear Tom’s logic on this one? But I tried to get clever yesterday and over analysed a race so for me Excelebration wins this and 5/2 is fair with Golden Lilac the danger and worth a saver at 10s.
I have to say, my heart sinks on a Sunday with Pricewise – French and Irish races are not his forte – be interesting to see what his actual P&L record is like in these 2 countries as he never (or very rarely) seems to get a winner. I’ll probably eat my words later but I’ll double up on them anyway and cross my fingers………
It could be worth siding with Moonlight Cloud (2.40 Deauville). It looks likely she’ll get the trip and
if the pace is a pedestrian one, her speed should nail it.
Can’t get excited about Wexford Opera, personally, but it’s
a 2yo race so anything could happen and frequently does.
I tend to avoid such contests, too much guesswork required.
But I wouldn’t wish to discourage the die-hards from having
It’s ok Frankel Bolger agrees with you he’s withdrawn him!
Good to see confidence in Excelebration rewarded to land lumpy wager 5/2 about what I made a 6/4 shot is still value hopefully a few got on. I’m in danger of becoming obsessed with Golden Lilac though can’t believe her runs since beating Cirrus Des Aigles.
I was just looking at my recent e/w bets following Lay Toms comments re Tin Horse, and they’ve been 3rd at 6s, 3rd at 11s and Golden Lilac today unplaced all £25 e/w. So as it happens instead of losing £150 I’m about even. I could just cut them out altogether and just put more on strong fancies but the difficulty is having the discipline. And, sometimes you look at a race and think yep the fav shoulod win but I could get him him beat and if there’s the dead eight you can be quite confident of hitting the frame even if the fav does win. I’ll keep a closer eye on this and see if I should follow LT’s advice and cut them out.
TOM didnot tip any todaay..
paul kealy messed it up today…
he was saying so much against hunting rights(3/1)..
he put me off that horse..so much convinced with his write-up
he was very sweet on must be me(2pts bet @3/1)..he didnt bother abt hunting rights at all and he put yorkshire icon as danger
wish i ver checked it today
TOM didnot tip any todaay..
paul kealy messed it up today…
he was saying so much against hunting rights(3/1)..
he put me off that horse..so much convinced with his write-up
he was very sweet on must be me(2pts bet @3/1)..he didnt bother abt hunting rights at all and he put yorkshire icon as danger
wish i never checked it today
I’m a bit concerned with Tom’s justification for Priceless Jewell. Basically he’s said that Priceless Jewell beat Galician (whose shortening at 9/2 at BSQ at the moment whose also in this race) at Kempton earlier this year and is now having weight applied.
He then refers to Mince who is from the same stable as Priceless Jewell with the win last weekend. Well we all know that the ride on Galician was a shocker, and, in my opinion anyway, would have won that in other hands.
9/2 on Galician seems very good value to me, and that’s where my money’s going on that particular race.
Peter beat me 2 it. Barnet Fair is going 2 be my PW banker. I don’t believe Galacian would have beaten Mince as my post indicated prior to the race last week, however I am with you Pete 100% with your comments regarding Priceless Jewell.
Have had a good look at these tips now and don’t like them one bit. All I am saying barring Barnet Fair I am not backing then and I’m not confident on that one either although out of the 4 it is my Pricewise Banker. I do think Our Jonathan at 16-1 is a great bet although he has been a little disappointing this year.
I’ll be saving my funds for a race in America to have a serious bet on a horse called Bayrir. I can’t get a price on betfair yet but hoping someone makes a mistake pricing this up.
You not fancying Jacob Cats LT? You were strong on him at Goodwood and he ran well backing up after 6 days he must have a chance against an exposed bunch tomorrow? I’ll probably have a bet on him but will be patient tomorrow. Good luck in the cavalry charges all.
Agree with Lay Tom about tomorrows tips, but those
sprints do look like attractive betting heats.
These are the selections and prices taken:
2:20 RN L’ami Louis 10/1
3:30 RN Alben Star 8/1
3:20 NT Saloomy 6/1 > (could have done better there).
Galacian needs to improve again to win and I’d take
Mince if they were to meet again in the near future.
I believe the reason it came late last time was because
it’s handicapped up to the hilt right now not because of
the jockey. Anyway hope you enjoy the racing, I’m
travelling tomorrow and will miss all the action.
STRONG SUIT at crappy odds to me is the bet of the day. 3 star bet. OVERPRICED AT 2-1. Worth backing to get back PW stake money in the event Tom fails to hit the bull with his 4 darts. Baby Strange might do well also at 8-1 with Paul Hanagan on board. James I’m backing Jacobs Cats also, but will be waiting for the odds to be chalked up on your Arlington selection. Cheers
Gutted Strong Suit was flying at the finish. The winner was went hell for leather and was allowed to lead. You could run that race a dozen times and I suspect you woukdn’t get the same result. Reply
It involves purchasing prepaid credit cards that and loading with money. This means you can’t spend more that what you have put on the card. Cashplus card costs £4.95 and is free to use on all transactions for the first 3 months, including cash withdrawals and abroad. Cheap way of accessing your money when on holiday. I used it today with betfred and am waiting for another £50 free bet to be credited. Simply set up a on free email address, yahoo, gmail, hotmail etc as they validate that. You can use one card for many free bet offers. I don’t know what the procedure is to withdraw, as today was the first time I used it and had 3 losers and a NR in a £10 lucky 15.
yes that sounds like a good idea but BETFRED will only give 1 free bet per household address, so unless you have access to multiple address you can only do it once. Also I have a cashplus card and it is £4.95 to get the card and £4.95 every month after that.
Cheers James I did thanks for pointing me in that direction-your advice is always highly respected, but i wasn’t able to back it on BF as there wasn’t a market, so was forced to use high street bookie. Clawed back most but still nursing the wounds after Strong Suit.
Prepaid cards have in many cases an introductory offer free to use for 3 months. After that time you bin it. The one per household isn’t really enforced. Think about it. People do move addresses and if that was the case the previous occupier could prevent the new owner/tenant from obtaining free bets. One card can be used with multiple bookmakers which equals multiple introductory free bets. If your clever it will work for you. Register card with your middle name, new email adddress and when registering account different DOB.
Just logged onto Betfred £50 free bet has been credited. Happy days. That £4.95 will pay for itself when I use it with the other 10 or so other bookies. TF I would be grateful if you would remove this post and the other 2 after in a few days time. I am on holiday for 2 weeks from Thursday so may be offline depending on hotels wifi. Taking IPad so will be following. After Motavado was tipped by PW and won at ease I lumped on at 11/2 for the Ebor. If it runs I think it will win. I haven’t felt so confident since Strong Suit-whoops that got beaten
Same here LT had been hoping someone might drop a clanger on the exchange but there’s rarely much liquidity anyway on the US stuff.
What a week ahead. Fascinating stuff today at Deauville and then a trip over the Pennines to see Frankel step up to 1m2f on Wednesday.
Tom’s took the day off it seems. Who knows which promising 2yo will step forward in the Morny? No strong fancies for me but the most interesting race betting wise is the last at Dundalk. If I can get a double figure price on Certerach I might invest a few quid to try and bolster the York bank as on form his 3rd at the Curragh is as good as anything. But he’s a big horse for Dundalk and the trip might be a bit sharp and he’s up against some fast improving 3yo’s so just a 1 point selection. I’d want him ridden forwardly and then maybe look to trade out.
Thanks for that info about cards LT but I have had many problems will BETFRED and others refusing me the free bet so I can assure you it is enforced. I even put in a complaint with betfred saying that the name was different even though the address was the same but they still refused me a free bet.
My first port of call when getting the free bets is always PADDY POWER – they give the nest bonuses and dont check too much ! Think they are doing £250 via oddschecker at the moment. BET365 give £200 but you do have to play through around £1200 to be able to withdraw it and if you bet on pricewise you account will be restricted after a few bets.
Here’s something interesting a mate of mine collated today regarding bookies and who is the worst value for money;
He took all the available prices for the leading contenders (i.e. all horses priced below 10/1) in each race mid afternoon from the 8 bookmakers on the remainder of Sunday races. Here’s what the analysis turned up, your thoughts/opinions/personal experiences would be interesting to hear;
Best Overall Prices
1 Victor Chandler
2 William Hill (BOG Online only – shop prices not always as good)
3 Stan James (BOG only on bets placed after 1st show)
4 Bet 365 (all BOG)
5 Corals (BOG but Online only)
6 Paddy Power (some BOG in shops)
7 Betfred (some BOG in shops)
Ladbrokes prices were 3% worse than Victor Chandler.
Betfred & Ladbrokes were by some distance the worst both in respect of total prices (i.e. all horse prices added together) & in individual race overrounds (comparing total overround with other bookmakers).
Best Race Odds/Worst Race Odds:
Paddy Power 2-2
Stan James / William Hills 1-0
(So if you were backing in a race at Ladbrokes yesterday the chances are 2/13 that you had the best overall margin & 5/13 the worst)
Backing Favourites (Joint Favs)
7 Stan James
(Betfred’s prices for all Favs were 4% worse than Paddy Power).
Incidentally, he was prompted to do this research after he was somewhat cheesed off with Betfred’s price changing (not to mention their often skimpy prices). He noticed a 9/1 shot (which lost btw) pushed in to 7/1 after the withdrawal of a 13/2 shot which didn’t look right to him (of course there might be a counter argument about their being money placed on the horse). The withdrawal calls for a 10p R4 deduction -therefore the equivalent of 90p in the pound would be used to calculate any returns. This means that in effect the price has become 8.1/1 (a £1 stake would return £9.10). Shortening the price of this particular horse to 7/1 seemed on that basis alone to be somewhat on the wrong side of greedy & basically taking the proverbial yellow stuff out of joe public. Reply
Its an interesting bit of research, but probably too small a sample to read too much into it. It doesn’t matter what VC’s prices are because they won’t lay a decent bet. Ladbrokes used to have good prices stopped laying me very quickly. I think you really need to shop around and have plenty of accounts to have a chance of making money.
Thanks Tomthewinner will hopefully have free WiFi so will be able to logon. I have really piled on Motavado for the Ebor has anyone else got an opinion. Regarding Frankel his odds are ridiculous in my opinion. He might be the highest rated horse in the last 40 years but this doesn’t justify odds of 1/5 on BF over an unknown distance. Of course he should win and I am sure he will, but I bet with my head and I would rather back 3 or 4 of the others to get him beaten. You are not going to lose much and have plenty to gain. We have all seen certainties get beaten although that would be a shame.
Yeah have a good un LT.
Nothing is a cert in this game but if Frankel is fit and well he’s the closest thing I’ve ever seen to it. He won’t be beaten for lack of stamina. He outstayed Nathanial over a mile on soft ground at 2. Excelebration, arguably a better miler than Rock of Gibralter, was drunk at the line in the Queen Anne and Frankel was powering on and on. Another 440 yards would have meant nothing in any of his races except maybe the SJP and Queally asked the almost impossible that day. I’m going to the Knavesmire and I love a bet as much as anyone but there are five other races to indulge in. Lets just watch him win.
No bet yet on the Ebor but Royal Diamond at 33/1 is too big.
Wary of tom at york no winners in 2 years august meeting.Hope he can do something in hcps. Reply
Only one winner in 3 years at this meeting and that wasn’t from his column in the Post. It was Pricewise Extra.
THREAD CLOSED FOR COMMENT
GO TO http://tipsterform.com/pricewise-september-2012/
I have found a brilliant tipping strategy using Pricewise and Tom Segals Tips using this website.
I know they do not always win but i have found that when they run again it is worth backing even if they have run unplaced when tipped by Tom Segal.
The amount of winners i have had doing this is unreal.
I will give you one example Il De Re was tipped by Pricewise and ran completely unplaced but when he came out again at Chester he bolted up at 8/1. Reply
I noticed myself that some of them win. Tominator being the latest example. But he has tipped nearly 300 horses this year and it would be difficult to go through them all to see if there is a long term profit in it.
The publication of Tom Segal’s antepost tips is always announced in advance in the Racing Post (usually on a Pricewise page) but the easiest way to be notified is to get onto the Racing Post’s mailing list and at the foot of their daily emails, they always announce when, on the following day, there’s going to be a Pricewise column. You can get onto the list by emailing a request to them at firstname.lastname@example.org
most of my bets on pricewise tips are on the Saturday i only have the occasional bet on other days as hard to get or even attempt to get a price on workdays anyway. Had an all nighter and got back just after 9am the day captain ramius won very gutted about that. Have just done the Cesarewitch and The Arc antepost tips bets now got 10/1 and 12/1 respe4ctively with laddies.
hillster,if SEGAL gives antepost tip,they normally put up at the top of this page,when confirmed by TF,.I f a poster gets it,they normally put on the relevant month thread,IE, this month it starts, pricewise, oct 2012 at above right,when you scroll back up.
Can we congratulate Tom Segal on another winning season. When he is compared to other tipsters, it is often overlooked that he is give just a few races from which to make his selections. These are inevitably the most difficult of the day.
apart from tom i know a good tipping column albeit for golf thats over 250 points up this year better than pricewise but the golf column usually reccomends between 20 and 28 points stake on a typical week which is a high outlay. Im guessing tom from what ive looked at average points staked per week is between 7 and 10 points not includng pricewise extra.
feeling sorry 4 u…nevermind we will get another one next week. Reply
Swings and roundabouts, I backed the winner Tom gave on the Morningline thinking it was a Pricewise Extra Tip, so I guess the betting gods just evened me out………. lol
Please add Le Beau Bai to Pricewise bets 2013 because he was Tom Segals Ante Post selection for the Welsh National. Reply
I don’t count his ante post non runners because if they win we only credit him with the Betfair SP. It wouldn’t be fait to penalise him.
I enjoy looking at the site here and Pricewise selections. I never back his as I only back my own given the amount of time I spend on Form and Ratings. I think he is over rated and the market over reacts to his selections
I know it is after the event but my Top rated today was Ranhjani Express and I got 25/1 early. If you look at it’s run the time before last it was highly impressive and it certainly wasn’t its true running last time out. Trained by Henderson. I thought it should have been a 10/1 shot in a race like that given it was 7lbs best in according to me.
Anyway I will put my head on the line and suggest a small EW bet on BLACK THUNDER tomorrow in the Coral Cup. Once again it could be underestimated at around 20/1, although you could back 5 horses in this and still not get a return. I shall be backing BLACK THUNDER with a small saver on MEDINAS. WYSE HILL TEA BAGS and BUCK MAGIC should also go well.
Good Luck Reply
One of our own posters (Mars) tipped that one today at 40 on bf. Interesting that he also goes with Black Thunder tomorrow. I don’t think Tom Segal is over rated. Over the long term he makes a profit at BETFAIR SP.
Flaxen Flare Tom gets it as 40/1 Please can someone tell me how this was done as it was only 25/1 throughout the betting shows and when they went off. ???? Reply
I backed it at 40 on Betfair and that was the Betfair SP.
Alan – TF records all bets at betfair SP, which anyone can obtain. The bookies will not accept meaningful bets on Pricewise tips at the prices advised, so it is a meaningless statistic. On this occasion, anyone who took the betfair SP was rewarded with a 39/1 winner. There are many more occasions where the betfair SP is less than the advised price.
Thank you James I must admit I was not familiar with betfair as I thought it was a place where you had to put up a large amount in the account and how it really worked. This evening I sent an email to Phil Donaldson whilst watching the Greyhounds and he explained everything in that you can back a horse just like with a Bookmaker but its all other punters giving you the price. You only need a large monied account if you are laying. I will certainly investigate it as a medium. Thanks Alan
Betfair is a pretty dangerous place for a novice. Put £20 in and do £2 bets until you get the hang of it is my advice.
Thanks for such a great website. However, when I access it via my wife’s Blackberry tablet, there is much more information and the correspondence is bang up to date. However, when I access via my PC, the correspondence is limited (e.g. at this moment 10.00 on 23rd March, the Comments end at 16th March. The comments on the tablet are also more numerous.
Should I access the site through a different web page?
Any suggestions, please Reply
That sounds like a Browser issue to me. Use Google Chrome if you don’t already is all I can think of. I will ask IT Guy.
I think I have partially solved the problem by going to Recent Posts on your site, although the Blackberry lists all postings back to Jan 2012. As it’s the most recent contributions I am interested in, the immediate problem is sorted. However, if your IT guy can offer an explanation, I would be grateful.
On a different subject, I will be following (looking at, rather than backing) all Pricewise’s tipped losers through the season.
I only usually bet on saturdays as this is the easiest day for me to bet as in the week some weekdays i have no chance of getting a bet on at advised prices due to work. some sundays i could get on but other sdundays i am busy so i stick mainly to saturday bets. 6 losing aprils last 9 years is a big worry but like any good tipster overall this year i expect to show a profit by the end of the year. Is it true that pricewise has been going for just over 11 years? i have read somewhere he has had 10 years out of 11 full years showing a end of year profit and average yearly profit of 120 points.
Pricewise is now £2900 down for May but this not reflected in your total profit and is not up to date so he is not doing as well as it looks.
Following him blindly is a leap of faith and one must have to have a massive Bank betting £100 per point with the long losing runs.
Also i think the 40/1 Betfair SP is unrealistic reducing the profits by another £2000 so all in all you would be down by about £4000 since the start of the year.
The AUTOMATIC UPDATE DIDN’T WORK FOR SOME REASON, BUT IT’S FIXED NOW.
Re the winner at 40. The rule is we use Betfair SP because everyone can get it.
It works both ways since Barazan was returned at 9.72 and a lot of people got 16/1.
I don’t recommend that anyone follows PW, even though I do myself.
Thank you for the info. fair comment about the prices. i guess if you are going to follow a tipster he probably gives you more of a chance of making a profit in the long term than most. many thanks Reply
Not at all. Cheers for pointing out that the update wasn’t working.
My own opinion is you need a 100pt Bank and you should expect to make no more than 15% ROI.
You can usually beat the Betfair SP on the winners because the big drifters usually lose.
Horses that are backed against the Pricewise selection are in my opinion also worth following
because they are moving a market that has already been moved by the Pricewise volume.
Should n’t it be 2 pt loss for Say in the Oaks as was e/w selection….Pricewise having his usual May barren spell, think he hates the changeable going! Reply
Cheers Mark………. will sort that later……. up to my eyes.
Tom I just cant get my head round you not picking one winner at Royal Ascot, I do hope you havent lost your touch. It was only good I backed my own horses as well as I had 4 nice winners to give me a profit on the week. I did all yours in Doubles and Trebles as well to small stakes each way but the returns were negligable. Come on my boy back to the form Book and some winners next week end please
Can someone out me right.
I see at the top of the page that there were 306 selections
and cumulative profit of 4,813 and the bet size is 100.
By my reckoning it works out at around 1.5% profit based on the 100 bet size as indicated.
Is this correct?
do people usually do toms tip each way or just win only? i never know which way is best £ 96 up this year before today so went each way on all todays tips including the ante post tips. 30 losers in a row for saturdays before today but with 7 places. Most of my pricewise bets are on a Saturday as I rarely have to work on saturday, work gets in the way of getting the best prive weekdays. Occasionally have a sunday or bank holiday flutter.
ive done a mix this year of win and each way bets on toms tips, before grand national did everything to win, then had a spell of doing everything at 10to1 or better each way but got to £ 123 up for the year got covcky so went back to win only but last saturday and this saturday due to a bad run went back to each way again grrr!! My mate who bets only on the grand national thinks if a horse is 10to1 or better its best to back it each way.