Bet Tom’s never heard of most of the runners tomorrow and you couldn’t blame him! I will have a few quid on Destroyer Deployed. Can’t jump for toffee but 9/2 on his bumper form is big against this lot but that was a lot of poor runs ago and suppose the Oneil might be a big improver, but he looks as good as any to me on a tricky day.
One of my favourite races saturday the november handicap us older contributors fondly remember it as the manchester november handicap won by such handicap greats as operatic society when i was young my mum backed it two bob ew ! Hope tom has a nice surprise for us.
Nath, we can’t post that because there is a copyright issue and the Racing Post tend to clamp down. I know that from experience as I did have a problem with them in the past. Hope you understand. It’s not so much the tip, but the text cut and pasted from their site they hate.
Whats wrong with buick in 2.35 opened on betfair 42 now 75 is it the low draw? Nothing moving yet is tom going for clayton ? Sorry buick mount is darley sun! GOOD LUCK everyone tomorrow including mad paddy any ideas for november hcp paddy for the lemmings you love so much!
Thanks S.K. I’ll definitely set my alarm for 8.30 then. I’m going on a bit of a bender tonight though so whether I actually wake up when my alarm goes off is a different story. Good luck to everyone for tomorrow. After some questionable selections from TS recently I have a good feeling about these ones! Fingers crossed we’ll be putting the champagne on ice tomorrow
TF like the photo appended for your Nov posts-right colour horse-wrong colour silks-therefore not this years winner of the Paddy Power due to be run next weekend. (Grand Crus)
James I am with you with Jack Dexter 3:10 needs to be backed until his fortunes change
I think TS Pricewise tips are also not this week without a chance. Docoftebay is the only one I give no chance to. Too long in the tooth 4 me and question marks with the Package but is value at 8-1, but can’t see it beating Michel Le Bon.
Zarkanda nap at 9/4 14:50 Wincanton Reply
The pic is obviously Great Endeavour. I backed it and when I saw the pic I loved it.
Good luck with Grand Crus,
TF CUBANITA Was originaly in november hcp now going for a listed race wonder what beckett reasoning is good luck i wont put the mockers on him by backing him! Once more good luck on a very difficult donny card.
Think Eddie Freemantle put up Clayton in the paper yesterday as well. I’m taking a flyer on Hanoverian Baron at over 50 to 1 on Betfair. 4th last year when didn’t quite get home in the soft ground but wasn’t far behind Willing Foe now rated 107. He’s probably on the downgrade but if the ground dries up 50s is a big price and he usually travels well so might be able to bail out for a profit as well.
Fantastic day backed Art Scholar and had two great paying forecasts up. Nap also up with Zarkanda.
But better still have just read that Grand Crus is going to run in the Paddy Power next week and I have had my life’s biggest ante-post bets at 5-1 and 9/2 and with doubles with Long Run or Boxing Days King George. I have had a sensible savers o Hunt Ball at 8-1 but I will win so much Saturday I won’t need to work for a year
BetFan sent you an email this morning with a tip enclosed, a free horse
racing tip that was available at 20/1 some readers got upto 30/1 on Betfair!
The horse in question Art Scholar ran a fantastic race and won very nicely
indeed! The team at BetFan jumped for joy for readers! The free tip came
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Yes the same guy who gave readers the winner of the Breeders Cup last
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If you’re not a full time member join below…
Again I really hope you got on this quality tip as these guys did…
“bolts in to win, the don does it again! Living legend”
just thought i’d post this wonme a few quid.
Sorry guys posted the gambling don web link by mistake.
the link for the free betting tips( for what they say are there top 10 tipsters )is http://members.betfan.com/ send you an email everyday with a free tip .
I wish Tom Segal could explain why he invariably on Sunday tips nags (sorry donkies) in Ireland. Why not In UK. Trust me he knows F’all about Irish form if his stats are to be taken on face value.
His stats are, as all us regulars know, not just terrible they are shocking. My grandmother could do better with her knitting needle. His tips are shameful. Steer well clear unless your laying in which case you are likely to be making shed loads.
One selection for me today: 15:05 F.Las Wayward Glance. McCoy and longest traveller 9/2 generally. Guaranteed to give you a run for your money
Even though I backed the PWE tip before I knew it was PWE I really do think we are getting carried away with patting TS on the back. I didn’t realise anyone who didn’t want to lose their shirt was stil baking these stupid costly tips. He was bound to get one in sooner or later, but credit where credit is due well done to anyone else who backed Ballyfinboy.
His record in Ireland is terrible and in particular with PWE. Remember he did also have 2 short priced Segal on Sunday Irish losers today.
Good selection made by Coops, well done Reply
I think it depends on how you view Tipsters LT.
Segal has had 51 Winners from 380 bets.
If you got the worst price available on each winner you would be level.
But if you were able to beat the Betfair SP by 1 point on average you would be up 51pts.
That’s an ROI of around 13% and this has been the worst year in the last 3.
I think Segal’s Irish tips have been ok recently LT, and I follow Irish racing more than most. The real point about today’s tip was that the jockey won the race and I personally think he was the reason Segal put it up,not because of any form chance the horse had, it was an educated guess because Cooper is riding so well, and it paid off, so credit where it’s due.
He had 1 short priced loser TF (which was a strange selection, I certainly didn’t back it). His other selection So Young was a NR.
The 2.20 at Navan seemed to be a very open race with no clear favourite. If I have no opinion on it and Segal picks a horse out from the card (especially at 20-1) I’d side with him and back it everytime. Reply
We just ignore the Segal on Sunday tips Nath, if there is no advised price. Logically they are bad bets as the bookies price them after he has tipped them. I’m pretty sure you would make money laying them. I will have a look through them when I get a chance and post the P&L.
finally MR LT
i dont think we r really getting cariied away patting TS
for sure he is a legend…
check ur tips…u r posting so many short priced tips and some of them u were describing them nearly as bets of the year blah blah balh ( camelot,stong suit so many) cudnt manage to tip a winner until yesterday……that too with a short priced one as well..so how can u think we r getting carried away
about his irish tips basically he was saying favorites can be beaten in those races i think his point was proved in one race where 1/7 odds-0n favorite lost and in the 2nd race.. that big jumping error costed realth dubh very badly
Tomthewinner, Please tell me where I have said not to back Pricewise tips. I have never said that in fact quite the contrary.
I oppose on stats PWE Segal on Sunday tips ONLY and particular Irish selections.
Regarding Camelot I implied it wac madness backing him in the St Ledger at 1/3 or whatever price he was. I backed him for the Arc with Dettori on board. Strong Suit was beaten narrowly at Newbury when I said he was a good thing.
Before throwing stones I would check your facts.
Take yesterday, I tthink I tipped one winner ( Zarkanda – NAP) and pointed you two winning forecast The Package and Michel Le Bon £25.62 & General Ting and Valid Reason £15.60. I also said Docofthebay had no chance and I think it finished last or thereabouts.
ur post about camelot…..
“Lay Tom | Oct 6, 2012 | Reply
Surely Soul hasn’t a hope in hells chance of pipping Mince. Bloody annoying as now as dedicated PW folllowerI I’m backing at 6/4 to big money. I really like the chances of Regal Parade. This is a value bet especially for you E/W punters. My advice is forget the place money,back win and put everything on Camelot. He won’t be beaten this time.”
I picked out Camelot for 2000 Guineas and Derby. I opposed him for St Ledger and this comment refers to the Arc as you know. We can all twist the knife in. I am saying right now that Grand Crus should win the Paddy Power but now at 5/2 is poor value but I backed it at 5-1. Slag me off next week
On a lighter subject, Prospect Wells is likely to be entered for next Sunday’s Racing Post Hurdle at Cheltenham. Paul seems to think that Prospect Wells might have beaten Zarkanda but for the last. In Betfairs Ante-Post market I have just matched £75 at 17.5-1 and win or lose assuming he goes to post will surely be half those odds. Paul Nicholls is indicating he will. Still ome 16-1 around.
Thanks Tomthewinner for your wishes for Grands Crus. ( I have covered my stake with Hunt Ball and Walkon as you never know in this game and Grands Crus might not be the same horse this year, but betting and reports from Pipe stable who target this race are very, very good.)
I am also considering Darlan for the Champion Hurdle at 12/1. He’s as short as 4/1 favourite for the Racing Post Hurdle. If he runs a good race there the odds won’t be double figures. Although also like Rock on Ruby for that. Surely new trainer Harry Fry’s flagship horse
Just had first look at Cheltenham weekend cards as making annual pilgrimage on Friday, looks a fantastic card and you can actually move so prefer it to the Saturday (old). Remember backing Dynaste at 25/1 a couple of years ago, how good did Aegean Dawn look that day. Any thoughts before Friday appreciated chaps.
Anyway reason for post was I was slightly interested in Al Ferof and was looking for him in the 10 stone 10/11lbs area, but he is giving weight to Grand Crus which I couldn’t believe. Wish I had some of that 5s LT!
James I have been sweating my conkers for the past few weeks as I thought Grand Crus may of been going for the Betfair Chase 4 a head in with Long Run which had it happened my money would not have been on Grand Crus. As I said I have covered my bet. Fingers, toes, legs and arms crossed. Will look a bit of a plonker if it is beaten, but I did back him at value odds. Anyone with any sense would point out I have one selection against the field. When said like that I probably need my brain tested.
By the way David Pipe says that Grand Crus is the best he has ever trained-that is good enough for me and as James says is being treated very leniently. Mind you I wouldn’t back it current odds of 2-1 as this is far too short. Horses fall, unseat and get brought down.
LT I am in no doubt 5-1 is value. Has he got a 16.67% chance of winning? No doubt. I could see him winning on the bridle my one concern would be if he tanks too fresh on seasonal debut he could, as we all know, clip one or maybe empty up the hill, but I think he will see it out. BUT, as you know the value is not there for us who haven’t got on and I will have to try and get him beat but I will have to play each way because of my respect for the fav. As previously posted Al Ferof is of interest and I’ve also got a sneaky feeling that this trip on goodish ground might suit Questions Answered. If my day on course goes well Friday I may just follow you in as could be a drifter on the day.
Anybody outthere any comments cccccorals and spoilsports refuse to take my bets but have not closed my accounts spoke to their customer services both said referred to traders who do not have to give any reasons,Iwould say my betting history with them is tom selections and golf via palmer and chapman biggest wins about £700 corals and £550 with spoilsports used to back my own mostly losing selections and were accommodated with no problems also i tend to back gary nutting ante post at the races. Why do they not just close the accounts?
Derek – had similar with bet365. After a week they would only take win only bets or halfed my stake. After 4 weeks they took a ” trading decision ” refused to take telephone bets restricted my custom to internet only and restricted stakes, i can get 35p E/W on horses max & like 22p on football bets. Bookies will not provide a service if you are disciplined and look like a risk. Keep doing what you were doing, home in on what you do well. Dont know why they dont close the accounts completely? wish they had i’d of been proud of the letter
Thanks for your comments sean its only over the last couple of years i have become choosy hence i have increased my profits and cutting out losers is almost as important as finding winners. Tom is putting his hennessy ante post in the post on thursday, also i am fascinated if tom picks jonjo oneill at cheltenham this week end after reading the pricewise book it would be nice to get better prices.Goodluck to everyone on this site
A bit more time on my hands today (to do the devil’s work?) so a peek at the Paddy Power seemed in order.
GRANDS CRUS had reminders, we should also have plenty of those:
Last Time Out, it’s only proper race: beaten 18 lengths.
Beat 4 rnrs at Kempton (1 was PU >> don’t you just love the jumps?)
Closing stages: “reminders after 2 out, just pushed out flat”
His Principal opponent (Silviniaco Conti):
“Mistake 1st, tracked clear leaders, chased winner 13th, ridden and no impression after 4 out, not fluent next, stayed on from last but no real chance of threatening.”
Wow, some challenge that was. And two also rans…
The form was “Franked”, or was it Bob’ed or Tom’ed… you know the bloke from the pub?
Silviniaco Conti beat a 33/1 shot and some old cards, in a NON-Handicap, LTO. How many other horses could have beaten that lot? (Wetherby)
Before that he beat 3 horses:
“closely attended to by runner-up, kept 1 length lead until driven along and asserted after last, in command final 150yds, readily”
2nd was Sonofvic (yet to win a ‘Chase}
“Raced in close 3rd, not fluent 8th (water), not fluent again 11th, hit 14th, chased winner after 4 out and 1 length down from next until after last when ridden and outpaced final 150yds but well clear of 3rd.” The other two were out with the washing.
Before that he beat 4 finishers, only one started at less than 12/1. It’s the wonderful world of dodgy jumpers (with short prices and tall stories).
As Frank Zappa used to say: “Does this kind of life look interesting to you?”
Oh! the joy of a short-priced jumps winner, good thing most courses are well attended by paramedics. GRANDS CRUS’s correct handicap mark is an unknown quantity, he’s never won one. POQUELIN has won a handicap off a mark 7lbs less than he’s being asked to carry this time and I’ve taken the 54/1 which was briefly on offer. I might be crazy.
I might not win but at least I’ve got a calculated bet and shouldn’t suffer from any undue stress in running. I may, or may not, bother taking any other positions in the market.
I’ll be as happy as the next man if GRANDS CRUS is the next Desert Orchid, or whatever, but I’m happy to wait to find out. Silviniaco Conti may be a new Kauto Star, again, we’ll see.
Derek,close them accounts,they keep them open for at least a year,after closing.so they can say when you open,(try) a new account with a new card ,fly bugger’s for sure.Have never used boyles though,too many say they are crap.
As per my last post on Grand Crus clearly the value has completely gone and at 2-1 or even 11/4 the value has gone. I wouldn’t be backing Grand Crus at those prices win or lose. I backed Grand Crus to very high stkes at 5-1 and this was value, along with Hunt Ball at 7-1 (e/w breaking my own rule but this was because I can’t see that one either not being in the first 4, albeit I don’t see him beating Grand Crus).
Prom has made a good case for not backing Grand Crus and at the price I must agree although I do believe it will win doing cart wheels with Hunt Ball chasing up.
There is plenty of each-way value around a big prices and Poquelin as Prom points out is a massive price for the 9 year old horse that is a true Cheltenham specialist albeit the weight is likely to prove his undoing from 3 out.
Apart from the massive singles, I have had on each of these this is also an ante-post lucky 15 I placed a few weeks ago to a £20 unit stake. Assuming cards fall my way I thought I would share this with all instead of announcing after the result is known.
Grand Crus 5-1 Paddy Power Gold Cup
Long Run 4-1 King George
Long Run 15/2 Gold Cup
Rite of Passage 8-1 Ascot Gold Cup
Thanks dave f will take your advice also anyone able to get tom ante post for hennessy after 8pm tonight his selection in thursday post. Saturday will be interested in tom selection for ppower in weekender intimates grand crus is unbeatable he wont be tipping it at the price available maybe he will have a saver on jonjo finger on the pulse.
God help you is all I can say! Whenever I have this urge to throw good money after bad horses I always remember the words Jack Doyle uttered to me when he was on his last legs in Shepherds Bush and I asked him what his downfall was: Fast women and slow horses, was his reply. (look him up, his story is v interesting) Now, I am not saying G Crus is slow but Prom has made a good case for him not winning. I hope for your sake he is wrong.
And T Segal could be the next Messiah – but I doubt it! I have to say that GC is very skinny for the PP, though I suppose all he can do is win his races and beat what is there in the race. His last run admittedly was poor, but Pipe says he wasn’t right, so who knows what he is capable of. Still, I look at the performances of For Non Stop and Hunt Ball and think he would need to be good to beat either of them at their best. We shall see.
Ah well. I said last night on here he was good value at 7/1. But I also said docofthebay was a good call by Segal on Saturday! Russian Ice seems a good price at 10/1 at 6.35 Kempton tomorrow. I’m going to jump on that. Might do a lucky 15 if anymore catch the eye
Actually scratch that, I’ll kick myself for not backing Lean on Pete if he wins. Will resist untill the weekend. Anyone know Segal’s selection for the Hennessey yet or is it not available on IPad during the week?
Thanks will take a look at Miss V Williams horses after the England game
Cheers Mad Paddy, as I said I do have savers with Hunt Ball which will make a profit, Walkon and Al Ferof stakes covered. Nice to get your vote of confidence with Grand Crus. 2-1 is a silly price now. However, I bet if I said you could have 5-1 you and Prom would be tempted.
Don’t fancy it in the slightest, as you’re asking Nath. Cue it hacks up! I’m with LT think Grands Cru is close to a cert assuming he stays up. But I’ll have convinced myself I can get it beat by Saturday.
Nath i love grey horses but i would never back short price favourites especially over jumps.I have a small bet on toms ante post selection saturday all the hype suggests he has little chance.Just remember last week in november hcp the cecil horse was unbeatable. In the long run fav backing is not the answer
Thanks tom saw it 12.15 so 13-2 only available not greedy.Wont get involved on friday too short for my stakes on pricewise selections ihad 20 on toms p extra but like 10-1 upwards for man selections. Good luck everyone at cheltenham .
It amazes me,everytime a pop is taken at any tipster,the tips start winning,IE pricewise xtra.lol.And it is not very often the bookies drift any tipped by tom,back out to the price he tipped it at,at one stage i seen today’s into 9/2,/5/1.love it,
Dave F I hope you have deep pockets if you intend backing PWE. I use to back the tips but he has too many losers often at very short prices. The figures on this site should be reduced 5% as the BFair SP is subject to a commission deduction and that is significant. Also there is a cost in obtaining the tip in the first place. On this site only Segal PW has been monitored. Was the winning tip George Baker TS?
Good luck to you and all others if you are making money on backing them. Make hay whilst you can. I can only assume you are being selective on which ones your backing as I am the ones I decide to lay if I think they have little chance.
LT. i do not have deep pocket’s,and certainly do not back any of tom’s tips blind,do not bet big stakes anymore,since tom’s golden 3 months,used to bet 200/300 blind,on tom and a paid for tipster back in them days,when i [paid what was left on my mortgage off in 3 years,luckily,had a reality check,)at the perfect time,_and decided,i would stay,a punter.NOT a gambler what i had turned into,by greed.Never ever bet anything under 3/1,and the bigger the price,the more on,(TAUGHT BY MY DAD,)when i was 9 yr old,and having a 3pence R/R every saturday,(total 30 pence,half a crown,),or 12 1/2 pence in new money.stopped betting when married with 3 kids,for years,and took it up about,10/11 yrs ago again,lucky for me.no mortgage,no pension,except for government,,but get sick of transferring money to bonus accounts,haha,and that is with smallish stakes,sometimes wish i had stayed a gambler,but i am too careful,that no bookie gets it back.be lucky
Me again.hope derek went BOG.or he will be sick.
Nath.dont know what he meant,?.TOOK A GUESS.?.
ANON,never seen a result put up like that ,?,ever hehe.
Just wish TF could put times posted on here,(asked before,),as it getsharder to see when posts are made,i know he can see em.but that does not help us.
And last whinge for tonight,(as the voddy takes over,)I see many more than 3/4 to beat Dodging Bullet’s than james.
Must say.i do NOT lay,tried 4 times and got my fingers burnt each time,i blame slow internet speeds,but maybe making my own excuses,lol.
Be lucky all who play,bak with my thoughts tomoz when voddy wears off.haha. Reply
Dave, there is no facility for me to turn on anything to show the times. However I do check the time of each post to make sure it’s not “after timing”. People did for some reason try and post tips after the results were in for some reason, but they stopped when they realised that all that type of thing was deleted immediately.
Carlto Brigante 1:15 (16-1 in 5 horse race, and not out of it, but will need a lot of luck)
Oh Crick 1:50 C (14-1 but will need to improve in open looking race)
Balthazar King 3:00 ( 3-1 Don’t look any further, solid pick on form )
Teak 3:35 (16-1 bottom weight, stable in form)
Dave F you must have balls of steel not to back ANYTHING under 3-1, but we all have our winning or losing formulas. As I can’t make PWE pay perhaps you would be so kind as to share with us all which ones your backing and which ones your not (before the results are known) as then perhaps after monitoring it for a few months I might start following you. Who knows you might become the reincarnated TS.
Interesting thoughts on Cheltenham today nice one all, I like the idea that Henderson could have run many horses in the DB race and chose this one and Balthazar looks solid. Good luck all. Couple of decent placepot at least shots put up as well so I’ve made a note. Good luck everybody.
Hi Nath my above 4 with the exception of Balthazar King (which I think will follow up on his beating of Galaxy Rock) are just fun selections. I added Tominator this morning and put on a very small stake lucky 31 on. A real wing and a prayer bet, no real chance but what the heck. Balthazar King however is a different proposition, I backing him properly. Am catching a train this afternoon from Preston 2 London and will watch the action whilst supping a can. If I lose, I hope somebody gives the bookies a stuffing. GLuck
Hello dave f i had 22 at 13-2 ended up with 189.20 with vc so i guess they paid the extra i dont use them very often i cant remember winning much before with them. I had forgotten about enhanced odds i think stan j dont do and james boyle told me lads dont before 10am.Dave i have just finished totting up the following to very approx figures to £10 stakes last flat the prices are the ones they quote so actual profits can be scaled down.tom +1195, pw extra +455, hugh t +987 and gary obrien+281 i wont give james boyle as he is private tipster Individual pw ex kealy +455 ef+58 ab-50 and tom+145 these are pretty reliable but not 100%. Hugh t eg prices drop in seconds as we know with tom hope this helps and of course pw ex fee £4.50 a week comes out of profits.I like your ideas on the flat i only back tom 10-1 up over jumps may have to change although i would never go under 5-1 in any race hence tom friday sel under 5 so will not bother.One last thing i have biggest stakes on his biggest prices 200-400 max. best of luck to all on this website.
I think Dodging Bullets is a dodgepot and a false Fav. Tominator doesn’t fare much better as 2nd fav.
Imo there are not many in this race capable of winning. River Maigue is the exception, and getting weight from all oin the race, must have a big chance if it has been schooled well – which I am sure it has being Hendersons. It NHF form is excellent and I expect it to win handsomely.
Mad Paddy keep up the good work – as I have said before I like people with strong opinions. Whether your proven wrong with your current analysis, your opinion can be helpful when you put up an iinformed argument with a twist of wind up.
Grand Crus endorsement from McCoy who on C4 just said, Grand Crus will be very hard to beat! Obviously he reads the same form book that James and myself use. That is not to say he can’t be beaten. I believe he will win by at least 5 lengths as he is in a different league and reports from Pipe (who lets not forget McCoy was retained by years ago) is very, very optimistic. Assuming he stays up he wins. ( Tomthewinner this is an opinion only, I am not telling you to back it as I said no value now)
Poquelin looks very much the forgotten horse of this race. He has a superb record in these types of races and is now down to a mark he can get competitive off once again. With the addition of the decent 7lbs claimer on and what looked a half decent seasonal opener at Ascot recently over too long a trip, i think he will be very difficult to knock out of the places here and warrants a decent bet at a big looking 28/1.