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February 23, 2014 | | Comments 99

Cheltenham 2014 LUCKY 15′s

We will be attempting once again to get a Lucky 15 or two up from our  16 HORSE grid.

BETFRED is the only online bookie who offers triple odds for one winner from what I can see. If there are any more, let me know. Triple odds is a big advantage and we need to have that edge. Most of my local shops offer it, but writing out 12 dockets can be a bit of a nightmare as I found out last year.

Basically…………

    • We will have 16 selections.
    • Most will come from Tom Segals Pricewise column.
    • We will combine them in 12 separate Lucky 15 bets.
    • To cover all 16 horses will cost 180 points. That can be £180 @ £1 a point or £18 @10p a point or any other amount multiplied by 180.
    • Just one 10/1 winner could get us 120 point back.
    • Two winners at 10/1 could make us a profit.
    • You can see the 12 lines combination below.
    • I will be putting in selections as we get closer to the meeting but the final tips won’t be ready until the first day of Cheltenham.

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  1. Please can you send me the spreadsheet.

  2. good news – betfred cancelled bets and now placed correctly!!

  3. Hi tf. do you collect money from site users for this or do you just get people to put on themselves. i would happily add into a kitty
    Reply
    Sorry Rick I just noticed your comment. No we don’t collect any money. People just do the bets themselves.
    TF

  4. We’d never hear from him again Rick if it came in lol only kidding TF!

  5. Have just struck a L15 to £15 unit stake

    CHAPOTURGEON 5-1 Foxhunters
    THE NEW ONE 5-1 Neptune
    JEZKI 7/2 Supreme
    HURRICANE FLY 7/2 Champion

    That’s £24k if all 4 win

  6. E/W lucky 15 are a complete waste of money. You’ll never make money long term with an e/w L31 or L63 and the jury is out on L15. DON’T DO IT, IT IS LIKELY TO BE MONEY DOWN THE DRAIN. BACK WIN ONLY AND HOPE FOR AT LEAST 1 WINNER.

    BETFRED are X3 one winner in L15, X4 in L31 & X5 in L63 with BOG, but obviously not on antepost.

  7. Hello i am doing this grid this year as i did last year but i have also worked out another bet which works well you select 15 horses and do 4 folds on all horses at a 5p stake it cost £68 sky bet and tote online both offer you to do it with 15 horses and the best bit is that 4 winners out of 15 at 6/1 or bigger will bring you a small profit and 5 or more then you are having a good day i think its the best way to bet, hope it helps.
    Reply
    Cheers Michael. I will have a look at that. I used to do a lot of those type of bets and got a real good spin. But most bookies only let you picK 8.
    Thanks
    TF

  8. Yes i have realized that i know that tote online and sky bet and blue sq let you pick 15 which aint bad.

  9. Looking forward to this years lucky 15 done well in 2011 following the bet won just under £500. roll on cheltenham.
    Reply
    I think it’s the best way to cover the meeting. Good entertainment and a chance of winning big. Hope we do better than last year.
    TF

  10. I have 2 horses to add to any lucky 15 for the festival.

    Arkle = Overturn he was 9/2 he will prob be 7/2 on the day. I think hes better than simonsig.

    World Hurdle = Peddlers Cross. Hes about 12/1 10/1 with bookies but he was 23s on BF last week and now hes 15s. i took some 23s. He doesnt like fences just like BB and he has the beating of reve de sivola.

    So 2 mccain horses for me that will be in a few multiples are those 2 with some antepost money singles on them too.

  11. I’m looking at megalypos in the triumph if it runs I think it would have beat swynmor a few weeks ago had swynmor not thrown the jockey

    Reply
    Big price Timbo.
    Will get a look at it later.
    TF

  12. to leave cue card from the ryanair reckoning would be a mistake imo. frankly i wouldnt even dream of betting flemenstar in that race at the price. nor would i bet riverside theatre but hey what can you do.

    Cheers
    I had just gone through the cards and stuck anything in the grid that caught my eye Mars.
    You have a point with Cue Card but I am leaning towards First Lieutenant in the Ryanair. I remember him short heading Rock On Ruby in the Neptune 2 years ago, 2nd to Bobs Worth in the RSA last year, there has been a bit of money for him and I’m sure O Leary would love to win his own race. His run in the Lexus says hes back to form. he likes the course and the drop back to 2m 5f will be in his favour.
    TF

  13. Worth checking out local bookmakers. Two of my local bookies offer 5 times the odds on one winner. this was just short of paying back on last years which only had one winner.

    Reply
    5 times the odds for one winner is a massive edge.
    The best I can get 3 times.
    TF

  14. 5 times a winner in an L15, apologies for my sceptcism but it sounds too good to be true. Are you sure your haven’t made a mistake or is the X 5 subject to T&C, e.g. on winners say over 10-1 or just for the Cheltenham Festival? What is the name of the bookmaker and where are they located? I would like to give them a ring and see whether If I can place a few bets by debit card.
    Reply
    It’s true OK. There are a few small bookmakers in Ireland that do it.
    TF

  15. Only just discovered this page and I’m really looking forward to having a go at the Lucky 15s. Looks interesting and should make the meeting even more exciting. Good luck everyone.

  16. VERY GOOD IDEA THIS I WILL BE FOLLOWING FOR SURE.ANY CHANCE YOU CAN SEND A SPREADSHEET THAT CAN BE PRINTED OFF CHEERS

    Reply
    Email me and I will send it.
    TF

  17. Hello everyone i am just wondering if any of you collect racing books cause if you do i have got the last 20 years of horses to follow on jumps and flat racing i also have loads of the old timeform black books from the last 20 year if you are interested in any email me at michaeltkelly@live.com and i can tell you exactly what i have got.

  18. Not sure how the lucky 15 16 horse grid works here as I thought you had to have all selections on same day of racing where this one covers the whole festival am I being thick?

    Reply
    You would need to check with your Bookie, but I haven’t had any problem the last 3 or so years.
    TF

  19. Tom Segal was really impressed with BALLYNAGOUR but he has about 5 entries at the festival.
    http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=752790#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_entries
    I hope he doesn’t run in the Byrne Group Chase.

  20. Okay i have a local bookie who will offer 4 times the odds on a lucky 15 now i do this bet every weekend but not with him, i want to do with him at cheltenham but i am worryed he will be like well this is a bit weird you got horses on four bets hear and refuse the bet.
    Reply
    I don’t think there are many bookies who will refuse Lucky 15′S at Cheltenham. They still regard it as a mug bet.
    TF

  21. NOTE*******************
    The selections in the 8 BLACK PRINT BOXES appear in more lines and should contain your strongest fancies.

    The selections in the 8 RED PRINT BOXES appear in 2 lines each and are more suitable for outsiders.

    Selection in Boxes 6-7-8-9 for example will all be in 4 Lucky 15′s each.

  22. Could i have a copy of your spreadsheet please.

    Thanks

  23. http://www.totesport.com/portal?action=GoRacingPostSignPostsJockeys

  24. TF,my fav irish tipster fancies Our Conor,that strong,he has bet it to win the Champion Hurdle next year.?.

  25. Please send me a copy of the spreadsheet

    Cheers

  26. Chatting to a fellow form student this morning and we came up with this sucker bet……...OUR CHELTENHAM
    OUR CONOR
    OUR MICK
    OUR VINNIE
    COLOUR SQUADRON
    BALLYNAGOUR
    MY TENT OR YOURS
    SEYMOUR ERIC
    COURT MINSTRAL
    I fall for this sort of thing all the time…..

  27. I have a re designed grid which works on lucky 31 as betfred am offering 4 times the odds on lucky 31 at cheltenham check it out. http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/3030/gridb.png

    Reply
    That’s interesting Michael. Good effort.

    TF

  28. The middle one is the biggest banker

  29. Totesport also do triple the odds for L15 , 4 x for L31 and 5 x for L63 . Goo luck for formthis year, will be following.

  30. *good luck for this year

  31. please send me a copy of spreadsheet – thanks

  32. With Flemenstar and now Imperial being NR, have you thought that Long Run at 8-1 may not be out of it and could give the Favs a run for their money. He hasn’t done anything wrong, but looks to be balls deep in this years event.

  33. Great idea, can you please email me the spreadsheet?

  34. When will the final listings be published.

  35. I’m, hoping to be finished by late Monday night or Tuesday morning. There are a lot of difficulties with horses having multiple entries. The Ground will also have an effect on my selections.
    I will be putting up 2 per race and marking my own favourite with a *.
    Last year there was a problem on the Monday when Betfred didn’t have all the races priced up, so check with your bookie.

    REMEMBER THESE ARE NOT TIPS. I AM PUTTING UP THE HORSES I AM BACKING. BEST WAY IS TO PICK YOUR OWN.

  36. can u email me your spreadsheet please

  37. thanks for this bet i have been doing so well on it i did it today at £1 stake hear is what happened http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/4999/gridbeforcheltenahm.jpg

    Got my cheltenham money.
    Reply
    NICE ONE……Well done.
    TF

  38. Date is wrong at the top but horses was today.

  39. could you email me the spreadsheet when you get time.thanks

  40. Hi everyone ,

    Cheltenham is back :)
    Not much inspiration for me but so far I have
    supreme novice Jeski
    Arkle or Grand Annual Majala 40/1 for the Arkle 20 for Grand Annual
    National hunt chase Back in Focus took 13/2 now 4/1
    Neptune melodic rendez vous 14/1
    Rsa Boston Bob took 6/1 argocat 66/1
    Jewson Arvika Ligeonniere 12/1
    Ryanair Sizing Europe 6/1
    Foxhunter Salsify 11/4 will be too good for Chapoturgeon

    MAJALA EW WHERE HE RUN… THE BET FOR ME ,

    More everyday of Cheltenham at Computer Choice by Seabird2 on here

    Good Luck

    Michael

  41. Annoyingly Michael, I’m also on Majala but looks like he’s Arkle bound with only seven runners so I think we need a Majal Miracle.

  42. Well that’s me more or less done, in numerical order.
    Our Mick-Festival Chase.
    Dodging Bullets-Supreme.
    Bordoni-Fred Winter.
    Unioniste-RSA.
    Super Duty-Kim Muir.
    Rock on Ruby-Champ Hurdle.
    Rival D’Estruval-Nat Hunt Chase.
    Tarquin De Seuil-Neptune.
    Silviniano Conti-Gold Cup.
    Cotton Mill-County.
    Cloudy Copper-Albert Bartlett.
    Menorah-Ryanair.
    Our Conor-Triumph.
    Viva Colonia-Grand Annual.
    Seymour Eric-Pertemps.
    Reve De Sivola-World Hurdle.

    Hope i do better than last year.
    Good luck everyone, we’ll need it!!
    Reply
    I like almost all of those EXCEPT 2.
    Good luck.
    TF

  43. My first attempt at this was last year’s unsucessful effort but can’t wait to get stuck back in.

    Could I have spreadsheet please if not too much bother.

    Andy.

  44. Which 2 and why if you don’t mind me asking.
    Interested to hear your view.
    Regards.
    AF.
    Reply
    The Gold Cup I couldn’t figure out, though was tempted with Captain Chris. I ended up not being able to find a 4th race for Friday due to the confusion over entries.
    TF

  45. My choices for Cheltenham day 1 are now on here ( look at computer choice by Seabird2 )
    Good Luck

  46. ***********************************************************
    I’m more or less finished. All the main selections in each race are marked with one * before the name. I haven’t actually done many Lucky 15′s and have been concentrating on mostly Lucky 31′s and 63′s. I will post up any of them that are giving us a sweat.

    Good luck everyone but please pick your own fancies.
    THERE ARE NOT TIPS. THEY ARE JUST THE BETS I WILL BE DOING.
    ************************************************************
    ************************************************************

  47. Im a bit confused i did these last year. There was only one in each box now there is two, what one do i do out of the two in each box or is the grid going to be changed before the races start.
    Reply
    My main bets will be the horses with a * in front of it’s name. I will also be backing the others in saver bets. There won’t be any changes unless there are non runners in the morning.
    TF

  48. Hi TF could you email the spreadsheet to me if you get a minute. Much appreciated

  49. How confident are you with these selections
    Reply
    I wouldn’t back any of them for big money in a single. I’m hoping to get 4 or 5 winners and make a profit. As I said they are not tips, just my own bets.
    TF

  50. Cheers for this idea TF. Good luck to you and everybody else over the festival and beyond.

    Cheers Kev
    Hopefully it makes a bit of profit this year.
    TF

  51. I put my own selections on last night with Betfred.i have tried putting the bet on with your selections today,but Betfred aren’t taking the lucky 15′s
    Reply
    You need to ring them or go on to Live Help to find out why not?
    TF

  52. hello day 1

    my ideas

    I like Jamala 33/1( 1-2 ),Loch Ba 12/1 ,Passato 66/1 ,Rajdani Express 28/1 for a small stake lucky 15
    add Pique Sous 22/1 for a Lucky 31
    and Quevaga 8/13 for a Lucky63

    Good Luck

    more at Computer Choice by Seabird2 on here .

    On a positive note not long for the start of the Flat and the return of the better Jockeys .

    Seabird2

  53. did you get an answer from betfred Neil?

  54. done, good luck all

  55. Jesus! I have an incredible number of bets. Keeping track of them is going to be fun. I have at least 8 Lucky 63′s a few Lucky 31′s and at least 15 Lucky 15′s.

  56. In addition to all the above horses I have put Monkety Thunkety and Fruity O Rooney in a few bets after they were flagged up by a few good judges.

  57. managed to get them all on eventually,now it’s down to the pub to watch it with a good few beers
    Reply
    Good Luck, luckily the magical liquid will dull any pain.
    TF

  58. betfred is taking L15 now just done mine

  59. Day 2

    A good day yesterday (28/1 winner 16/1 SP ) and still 1 horses to run for my Lucky 15,31,63 …
    today lucky 15 13:30 Draw N Drank 66/1,15:20 Mail de Bievre 22/1 16:40 Bordoni 9/1 17:15 Fastino Rustico 28/1 for a Lucky31 add Medinas 33/1 and for a Lucky 63 add Pont Alexandre 6/4 .. a lot of big odds outsiders so let be lucky…. Good Luck
    More about Day 2 at Computer Choice by Seabird2 on here,

  60. Lucky 15′s proving to be a disaster so far but at least i got the placepot up to 40p today , so clawed a bit back.
    Roll on day 3, toughest of the lot me thinks!
    AF.

  61. Another good day yesterday one 33/1 winner and 2 unlucky faller when going very well ,Today Day3 it is not getting easier Oscar whisky 6/1 at Ladbrokes is very good I hope the Cross Country is run and I get Lucky I have lucky 15,31,63 with some winners going to Saddler’s storm and Passato .so lets hope :) .today Lucky 15 14:05 Junior 33/1 ,14:40 Champion Court 15/2 15:20 Oscar whisky 6/1 16:00 Cantlow 8/1 for a lucky 31 add 16:40 Harry The Viking 20/1 and for a Lucky 63 add Dynaste 6/4 .
    More at Computer Choice by Seabird2 on here
    Good Luck

  62. Only 7 left in the Lucky 15′s. I think I will do a SuperHeinz.

  63. Betfred seem to have voided the Big Stu element of my lucky 15!

    Reply
    That’s odd. They didn’t void it in some bets I did on the 28th of Feb?
    TF

  64. Sorry typo, should read Big Shu.

  65. Winner at last. Big Shu at 14/1 in 3 Lucky 15′s should get us a return of 129pts. Still a chance of getting our money back or even a profit.

  66. Betfred also voided my bet. Is it worth getting onto them? Typical, the only winner and it was the one race that was rescheduled haha
    Reply
    When was it Voided? I have a bet still running with Big Shu in it and it is showing as a winner on my statement. It was done when the market was in ante-post mode, so different rules may apply as they are showing it as a winner on that slip. I also included it in a few bets yesterday with other Bookies and there were obviously no problems with them. It would be pretty sick to lose it.
    TF

  67. Its marked as “Draw” and the money was refunded to my account already. I only logged in to check after the race yesterday since it was the first win. I placed all bets 2 hours before the first race on Tuesday. I dropped them an email so hopefully they come good

  68. they voided mine on wednesday so i got on chat with them and they said they will pay out for me if i message them after the race has finished

  69. Good to hear, hopefully they come good, first time I’ve used Betfred and will probably be the last if they don’t. Fingers crossed for Our Conor today!

  70. Just read ballycasey is a NR today

    Reply
    Bollox……. it means we have 16pts going on Our Conor and 2 going on Cotton Mill provided they pay on Big Shu.
    TF

  71. Should get 95 back from 1-5-9-13 Lucky 15.
    Should get 43 back from 1-2-5-6 Lucky 15
    Should get 43 back from 5-6-7-8 Lucky 15

    Cotton Mill would get us about 100 back off 9-10-13-14

    I really hope you Guys get paid by Betfred…..

  72. Betfred are still refusing to pay out on Big Shu to me, all my bets were placed on 10/03/13, they told me that they voided all bets placed on the original race.
    Reply
    Some people said they got paid out.
    TF

  73. Paul did you right the time of the race and the day of the race becuase if you just right the time and not the day the bet will be void.

  74. Michael I did them on line, the bets history does not show the date of the race just the time.

  75. I looked at there terms and conditions which states all bets stand including accumulators if a race postponed to another day and over night declarations stand. So rang them and was told this only applied if it was ran the next day, I then pointed out that their terms did not state that and requested their complaints procedure, at which point they agreed to pay out!
    Reply
    WELL DONE, it’s a disgrace you had to go to all that trouble but you won.
    TF

  76. Got a link to where it says this in the terms and conditions? Couldn’t see it

  77. Think I’m out of luck since my bets were placed at 12.30 on tuesday so they have me on the overnight declarations bit I think right?

  78. Darren I think the declartions point relates to nothing changing from the original declarations.

    http://www.betfred.com/help/faq/sportsbook-betting-rules

  79. Hi,Did all your *bets on lucky 15s and got £45 back because they voided BIG SHU cant believe they are not paying out on it.

  80. Which Betfred paid out? Was it online account? My local Betfred is refusing as well

  81. Sarah. I imagine it was online going by Dans post.

  82. Got my revenge on Betfred not paying out on Big Shu with a nice 50p eway lucky 15 today, had Levitate 33/1, Monsieur Cadou 10/1, Sajjhaa 7/1 and Cloudy Too 12/1 beaten in a photo finish! Pays £2,321. Cheers Fred!!

    NICE ONE
    TF

  83. Anyone doing one of these grids for aintree? i looked to do my own but most the races are not yet available to bet on

    Reply
    I had a look at it last year, but it proved too difficult to get 16 horses.
    TF

  84. Its taken until April 17th to get paid out Big shu on the lucky15s at Cheltenham,received a letter from IBAS that Betfred have agreed to settle my wager.They originally paid me £45 but have informed the branch to pay me my extra returns of £119.IBAS have been great and this goes to show when you know you are right and not done anything wrong don’t leave it always take it further.In the past I would have left it but they do all the work it really is no bother.

  85. are you doing one this year

  86. I would like to know aswell. Time is pressing on, only a month to go.

  87. Yes, Michael ,working on it now.

  88. Let’s hope Betfred pay out this year without any aggro!

  89. why did the message board become a paid for thing? I used to read it all the time, but my punting level doesn’t warrant a ton a year for access!

    ————–
    Reply
    Everyone who used the forum was given the option of either contributing research or paying a fee. Those that make the effort are given free membership.
    We has a small number of people doing all the work and over 80% doing nothing.

    We want a community of like minded people who are prepared to work together on various projects to make a profit for themselves.
    We don’t care if that is only 40/50 people and we will continue to cut the member list until we have a site where everyone is helping.

    TF

  90. That’s me done, first draft anyway.
    In numerical order.
    1) Arkle- Felix Yonger.
    2) World Hurdle- Salubrious.
    3) Martin Pipe- Never Enough Time.
    4) Fred Winter- Guitar Pete.
    5) JLT- Champagne Fever.
    6) Albert Bartlett- Captain Cutter.
    7) County Hurdle- Arctic Fire ( Ground Dependant).
    8) Nat Hunt Chase- Gullinbursti (Ground Dependant).
    9) Supreme- Broughton.
    10) Mares Hurdle- Cockney Sparrow.
    11) Queen Mother- Baily Green.
    12) Neptune- Rathvinden.
    13) Triumph- Royal Irish Hussar.
    14) Dynaste.
    15) Cross Country- Star Neuville.
    16) RSA- Corrin Wood.

    I am using the same grid principle but a different betting strategy.
    Instead of Lucky 15s , I am doing doubles, EW trebles and EW Fourfolds.
    Any opinions would be welcome and appreciated.
    Good luck one and all, we’re gonna need it!!!!

    Reply
    Good luck. I hardly ever bet ew, but at 1/4 all races and the bigger prices I wouldn’t put you off it.
    TF

  91. Looking forward to when the grid is complete, did the lucky 15s last year very unlucky with a couple of good priced horses 2nd, by the way First Mohican out of the supreme and Tony Martin quoted as saying that Benefficient more likely to run in the Ryanair than the Champion chase.Good luck to everyone my best bet is Faugheen in the Neptune managed to get £50 e/w at 16/1 in November.

  92. Activist has been declared a non runner in the Triumph by Harry Fry.

  93. Sorry that should have been Activial.

  94. I can only see 10 lines 4 vertical 4 horizontal and 2 diagonal ? Can some one explain how the grid works cheers

  95. TF usually puts the 12 combinations under the selections when the grid is complete later tonight.

  96. 4 Horizontal Lines
    4 Vertical Lines
    4 In the middle
    4 corner horses.

    Good Luck

  97. Thanks for all the hard work you’ve put in much appreciated hope we get a few winners in,tf.

    Reply
    Cheers, it’s just my way of covering 16 races fairly cheaply with the chance of winning a fortune.

    TF

  98. Am I going blind or just stupid? i cannot see your picks for this year. i know nothing about horse racing but follow this bet every year.
    Regards.

  99. nice idea and 2 good winners today. however you need to keep an eye on your information as if u have had a 4-1 winner dynaste this becomes an 8-1 winner or 12-1 therefore in 4 bets ur returns would be 36points and 52points not 28 and 40.

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